Athabasca Oil Sands Corp (ATH.TO)

Has not been reacting to oil or gas rally. They are 50/50 oil and gas. There has been some disagreement as to how much the company is valued at. The company does not have a good history of hitting timelines or production estimates. It’s just not a name he needs to own.

(Top Pick Jul 18/13, Up 14.02) Quite disappointed in the performance. Market was expecting a deal done on their light oil properties and that has yet to happen.

7.5% bond maturing November 19/19. (Top Pick Dec 7/2012, Up 12.60%) He exited all together. Does not think oil and gas producers will not do as well going forward.

Had liked this because it had a lot of upside potential in the oil sands and he thought it would get a big bump. It did get a good run up and then came way off. Tends to blow hot and cold depending on sentiment on oil sands development. If it gets up to the higher part of its trading range, he would probably Sell. There is a lot of oil sands land and a lot of the big companies have stepped up and made their purchases. The government has also made it harder for foreign purchasers to come in and take out companies like this.

(Top Pick Jun 4/13, Up 13.46%) The overhang for the past year was the Chinese deal and people worried if it would get done. Now they have the money to spend. It should get a better lift going forward.

Started out as an acquirer of oil sands leases. They have migrated into light oil, but this has not wowed anyone. They are looking for conclusion to these oil sands plays. Doesn’t plan to buy.

It is cheap in terms of market price vs net asset value. $12 vs $8.08. There is a general concern however about over promising and under delivering. They just sold an asset to China and will put capital into Duvernay property. Prefers others.

Prefers smaller players for his oil exposure. Likes the ones that have more exposure to discovery, a pickup in oil production to the bottom line and just changing to a dividend model. Has an $11 target on this.

Approval has just been given on order in Council. They just need the environmental approval which should be a “go” on the Dover project. This means they can now exercise their Put option and Petro China will have to pay them over $1 billion on their joint venture. That cash should be in their hands probably 90-120 days from now. The upside from here may be $10. Now that the company has the cash, a clean balance sheet, now needs to show operational excellence. He’ll have to see 3 or 4 quarters. They are also looking to joint venture there Duvernay as well.

Easy money has been made. Stock probably goes sideways for a while. NAV is high. Trading at a nice discount but the catalysts won’t come for a year to 18 months.

There are a few dynamics in the story that might challenge the stock price from reaching $10.62 a year from now. Shareholder base largely consists of New York hedge funds as opposed to fundamental buyers. That community needs to sell eventually to realize again on a trading catalyst. This is a stock that you need to be really on top of. Risk/reward is not worth the gray hair.

Been disappointing, even though it is settled with the first nations. What really gets it going is the development. The Canadian oil and gas space has suffered, but is starting to come back.

Have a big overhang with a Chinese deal that is hanging in the balance. Chinese have a Put/Call option and they would like to put this project back to Petro China. Natives do not want development on their lands. This is all tied up in the court. Most analysts think fundamentally this is a great name and that it will eventually get resolved. But given all those issues, this is a stock he would avoid.

Thinks oil is going to do well over the next little while and this company will do well.

He has difficulty with it. It plateaued quite low. Looks like a buy technically and they have good assets. It does not thrill him however.