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Opinions Robert Lauzon
Athabasca Oil Sands CorpATH.TOCOMMENTMar 13, 2014
Robert LauzonStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 28, 2026. Market Open.
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Energy names have had a big pullback. Energy stocks are poised to push higher, and that rising tide should lift all boats. Better to buy the worst stock in the best-performing sector, than the best stock in the worst-performing sector. Energy will continue to see tailwinds over next 6-9 months. He'd buy right here, right now.
It is a large weight in their portfolio. Is a long term commitment but they have trimmed some. It shows visible growth, has a great balance sheet, and is buying back shares. Canada has the ability to add incremental pipeline capacity and Athabasca is well positioned to benefit from this and global thirst. It is growing organically and he sees 40% upside over the next two years.
Eric Nuttall
Thinks it's a double from here (not a 1-year target). Meaningful compounding of share buybacks over time. Roughly 35% upside next year at $80 oil.
Despite the runup, long-term upside warrants being exposed today, as long as you can ride with the volatility.
Eric Nuttall
What do you want to own today? Canada. Oil. Asset duration. Free cashflow. Share buybacks. This name checks off every single box. Still sees over 100% upside long term at $80 oil in this name, so he's trying to sit on his hands and not sell.
He'd have made it a Top Pick again today if he were allowed.
Eric NuttallThe high is around $8. It just broke above recent highs in the consolidation zone. Pretty important technical resistance is around $7. Likes it here, and doesn't mind buying at these levels. Positive, long-term trend on the 5-year chart.
Awesome chart, especially given how choppy crude's been. Crude picking up would be an additional tailwind.
In a post-shale world, Canada will receive a lot of fund flows. He took advantage of the Venezuelan selloff to increase his position weight in this name.
Eric NuttallA long-term hold. He's going to do his best to sit on his hands and never sell a share, as he sees meaningful upside over time. Ramping up current production, looking to start a new project. Once those both get going, has 40 years of stay-flat inventory (phenomenal).
Eric Nuttall
Massively buying back stock. Roughly 70+ years of stay-flat inventory. Plus, has probably benefited from sellers of MEG looking for a similar name. Bit of a premium valuation at 8.2x forward cashflow. Sees meaningful long-term upside, especially with his prediction for $80 oil.
Eric NuttallIs benefiting from weakness in American shale. The Oil Sands have been overlooked for a long while; the Oil Sands have supply unlike much of the world which is and will face oil supply shortages. ATH has no debt. They will have over 50 years of stay-flat inventory. Have low or no growth, but will buy back as much as stock free cash flow allows. There is a take-put premium in the current share price. At $70 oil, this will trade at 11% free cash flow yield. He sees $80 oil in a year or more, but not for the next 9 months at least. Great managers.
Eric Nuttall
Approval has just been given on order in Council. They just need the environmental approval which should be a “go” on the Dover project. This means they can now exercise their Put option and Petro China will have to pay them over $1 billion on their joint venture. That cash should be in their hands probably 90-120 days from now. The upside from here may be $10. Now that the company has the cash, a clean balance sheet, now needs to show operational excellence. He’ll have to see 3 or 4 quarters. They are also looking to joint venture there Duvernay as well.