
NASDAQ:AMZN
Way to get exposure to both e-commerce and AI buildout. AWS powers a large part of the internet, and increasingly becoming key to companies looking to deploy AI into real-world applications. Evolving from just a cloud story to a platform enabling AI to scale.
Holding despite trading sideways. Will be a leader in the space.
Great at current levels, relatively cheap at 25x PE. Overhang of hyperscaler "disease" of spending too much money with no ROIC (yet). Sees light at end of tunnel. AWS grew 24-25% last quarter. Ad revenues growing 22%. Retail/logistics reorganized along regional lines, which should improve margins. Revenue and EPS growing double digits.
More attractive than WMT. No dividend.
At a $200 billion capex, what is their ROI? Free cash flow is declining, but AWS is re-accelerating with a 24% return (21% expected). They overhired during the pandemic and just cut 16,000 jobs. AI is driving 22% of AWS's growth. Time will tell how these numbers play out, but are facing the right way.
Owns GOOG and AMZN, but not MSFT. All are spending at least $100B this year. It's going to be a show-me story. Investors really want to see if spending will result in future earnings. He thinks it will, but there's a bit of fogginess around that.
Plus, markets are shifting away from mega-cap tech, putting pressure on some of these names. If your time horizon is 5 years, not 1, you should do well with most of these hyperscaler names.
Heavy investments in AI took the stock down. He's sees spending not as a weakness, but as a source of strength by leaning into its scale and distribution advantages. Strongly advocates it as a Buy today.