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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

TOP PICK
Announced lower 2nd quarter forcasts. A fabulous company. Very strong.
BUY
He has a model price of $29.81, which is a positive differential of 20%. From a balance sheet prospective, in terms of price, it always bottoms here at $23.40.
WATCH
A good long-term chart with a nice steady up rise. Watch the last prior low which happened in 2005. The shorter term chart looks like it is trying to roll over.
HOLD
Natural gas is coming down and should help increase the value of this stock. Hold if you have this stock.
BUY
likes it.
DON'T BUY
On both Agrium (AGU-T) and Potash (POT) it is an expensive story. The imput costs makes it more difficult for them. Trades at too high a multiple.
BUY
Not sure why the market has been so hostile to the fertilizer stocks, particularly as the upside remains pretty strong. There is a lot of concern on the amount of energy that has to be put into fertilizer. This is possibly a “trading buy” here. Prefers this over Potash (POT-T), as it is the cheaper and more conservative of the two.
DON'T BUY
Doesn’t look strong
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Would be a buyer at $22.80. His model price is $31/32 which is a 35% positive differential.
HOLD
The stock went too high. People got overwhelmed by the good results. It will be a victim of cost pressure. At it's fair value now.
DON'T BUY
The problem is that natural gas is an important input for fertilizer stocks. How much can you push the price up on gas and expect to meet the ever more expensive supply. Wouldn't buy as long as natural gas is so expensive.
DON'T BUY
Fertilizer stocks have moved up quite nicely, but feels they are fairly fully valued right now.
BUY
Fertilizer stocks have been the one shining light in the chemicals. Global demand for fertilizers is very strong. We are in a long cycle for the demand for fertilizers.
HOLD
Cyclicals. Have their own cycles. Weather related. If China uses as much fertilizer as western countries, that's where you'll get big demand. A lot of news has been anticipated in the price.
BUY
Missed this one as well as Potash (POT-T), partly because of concerns on gas prices. International demand has increased as Chinese/Indian farmers are now able to afford these fertilizers. Expect there will be some pretty good earnings here.
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