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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

TOP PICK
Nitrogen is key to the growth of corn and they are the largest in North America. On the side, they are working on a clean coal project. Very cheap going forward.
BUY
If you are looking for a fertilizer stock, this one does show up in his portfolio with a model price of $49.84. An 8% positive differential.
BUY
Bullish on whole agricultural industry. Has to do with ethanol. Going to be more acres of corn planted in N.A. than ever before. (See his Top Pick.)
COMMENT
This one has had a long run. The pattern in the last two months indicates it is either a Top or it is building a symmetrical triangle. Watch the lower level that it hit in March and it goes below that, start to sell.
BUY
Fertilizer. Needs gas to produce and in a rising gas environment, their margins are likely to get squeezed.
HOLD
This has totally run away from him. Being helped at the moment by the intensity of the drive into ethanol and the need to fertilize more ground to feed the people. Run extremely well.
COMMENT
Low natural gas prices have improved margins. Phosphates are doing very well. Also participates in potash. If he owned, he would probably take some of his profits now.
HOLD
There’s been a lot of demand for fertilizers. This is one of the main potash distributors. A lot of foreign demand.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Agrium (AGU-T) and Potash (POT-T) have their lows in June and peak at the end of December. You can continue to hold or buy on weakness.
SELL
The stock made a high last year in the $30 area and did it again twice this year. This is the third time and, if it can't break through, this would imply a move back to test the lows around $25. He would be inclined to take a little bit of money off the table.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick June 20/06. Up 24%.) Very good company and still likes it. Has a lot of room to grow.
DON'T BUY
You have to be bullish on fertilisers for the long-term. As a long-term investor, he prefers Potash (POT-T) as potash is a scarcer resource than nitrogen.
HOLD
There is seasonality with this stock. Expect some moderate upside from here.
DON'T BUY
Profitability is falling quickly. Stock is expensive.
BUY
Been quite flat for some time. Long-term need for potash and fertilisers is going to increase. Potash is plentiful so the major cost is in transportation which is getting more expensive. Should do all right in the long-term.
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