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TSE:AGU

Agrium (AGU.TO)

DON'T BUY
Cheaper than Potash Corp (POT-T) on a P/E ratio. The problem is that agricultural chemicals have always been a pretty cyclical business. Looks fairly cheap. Has not been a great performer over the long term.
BUY
A lot of their input into their product is gas and natural gas prices prices are high. Have been able to increase prices and are making money. Stock is cheap, but long term a lot of production will come from countries where natural gas is very cheap. Short term it looks good.
WAIT
A strong company in a sector that is going through a correction. Although chemicals in general have been difficult Potash (POT-T) and Agrium (AGU-T) have been bucking the trend. It looks as though there is a strong and steady growing demand for fertilizers and these companies are big beneficiaries. Wait for a stronger market.
BUY
Likes this sector. A cheap way to get into the resources sector. Thinks it will go higher. This applies to Potash Corp (POT-T), Nova Chemicals (NCX-T), or Methanex (MX-T).
DON'T BUY
Problem with input costs. Has not made anyone money over past 5 years.
TOP PICK
Had major earnings revisions. Will probably be on his list to buy at month end.
DON'T BUY
Nitogen prices have been dropping while natural gas (a feed stock) prices have stayed high. Usually more volatile heading into planting season. Good company. Would wait for firmer nitogen prices.
BUY
Hasn't moved much over the last year despite the fact that fertizer prices have gone through the roof. The high price of natural gas in the US is making the Albertan and Saskatchewan commodities a lot more interesting. Likes this one.
BUY
Model price is $26. At the drop to $19 area in January they backed the truck up and bought a pile.
BUY
Technically, it has a decent base and can see some upside here.
TRADE
A long term disappointing story. Natural gas prices are very high, but demand for fertilizer will grow.
DON'T BUY
Always did well because it had cheaper natural gas than its peers. That may be coming to an end. Demand for fertilizer is pretty solid. Potash has done better.
WEAK BUY
Outlook is generally positive. Looking interesting. Both phosphate and ammonium look decent for the next year or two. For upside leverage, would prefer Nova Chemical.
WAIT
Prefer chemical vs fertilizers. Stock is slightly overvalued. Wait until 15% is down. Target is 21 dollars, but now it is little bit over.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Right now this stock is still on its down trend line. Buy the stock when it manages to break into 20 dollars.
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