Apple Inc (AAPL)

(A Top Pick Aug 15/14. Up 16.56%.) His model price is $156.53, a 40% upside. There is a lot of value. This is all about the iPhone, which is 70% of their earnings. Thinks it gets volatile here because the earnings look a little shaky. Doesn’t think the iWatch is even close to being a hit. AppleMusic is a dud. The company is going to have to drive hard to maintain its valuation. If there is any disappointment whatsoever, this goes back to $85 in a hurry. He would be interested at $85 for a trade.

Despite the huge run up and share price over the last 5 years, it is still cheap. Scores in the top 10% for him on value. Has a 41% ROE. Trading at about 12X earnings. Pristine balance sheet.

A great company. Valuations are very attractive, especially if you strip out the cash on their balance sheet, which they can use to buy back stock and increase their dividend. You are going into relatively tough comps in the 2^nd half of 2015. However, there is still a huge iPhone user base that hasn’t upgraded, so that could potentially lift the shares in 2016. Thinks concerns of a slowdown in China are overblown.

Seasonality tends to be positive from October to January each year. This is the time of year when the stock tends to come under pressure. Technically it is starting to show signs of bottoming, but we are not into the period of seasonal strength as yet. They have a lot of sales around Christmas, and that is the time when people are buying their products, and that is when the strongest anticipation occurs in the stock. Be patient. You will have an opportunity to buy this on any kind of weakness between now and the middle of October, for a very good seasonal trade right through January of next year.

A good example of a really well-run business. Sold off with the market. This is a great company with an amazing brand loyalty. Trading at 8X earnings after backing out the cash. This company is going to do just fine, regardless of what happens in China. Dividend yield of 1.87%.

Couldn’t resist using this as a Top Pick with the price in the $112 area. Stock sold off because of fears of China and their exposure, which is not insignificant. CEO commented this week that they are expanding iPhone sales in China. The Apple App Store in China had its best 2 weeks ever. All those concerns of China may be a little bit overblown. Stock is trading at 11.5X earnings and still the dominant player on the smart phone. IPhone revenues are expected to increase again this quarter. Dividend yield of 1.84%.

(A Top Pick Sept 16/14. Up 14.24%.) Sold half of his holdings when it reached $128. This is a fantastic company. It’s the ecosystem they have developed. The durability of being able to develop technology solutions that make their customers want to be customers for long, long periods of time.

Valuation is barely over 10X earnings. $202 billion of cash on a $635 billion market cap. 89% of that cash is offshore and hard to access, but this is a company that is just a cash machine and doing extremely well. The street forever wants to find a fault, and this month it is China. Their growth in China is dramatic, $13 billion last quarter, up 100% year-over-year, but people are worried. He thinks that in 5 years the iWatch will have proven to be so much more revolutionary than the iPhone, iPad or the iPod. It is not a watch, it is a sensory device. It is going to change our lives. Dividend yield of 1.9%.

This has been the market leader over the past few years. The long upward trend line running from 2013 has been broken. The successively equal or lower peaks earlier this year, could be considered as a bit of a topping action. Don’t catch a falling knife. When it stops declining, this will put in a base. Let it find a floor and don’t try to predict where the floor is.

This has broken some key levels. The next place where he would see some support come in would be around $94. Did some analysis today and saw some longer targets coming in at around $75.

Doesn't believe in averaging down. Last quarter there were a few issues that people were quick to flag. The company is producing and the cash hoard is staggering. They are putting up 30% growth numbers. There are fundamental reasons to be there, but doesn't recommend adding to it.

They have grown earnings as much as the share price has gone up. That is why, even after the run it has had since 2011, it is trading at only 13X earnings. Have lots of cash on hand. Stock is down 9%-10% over the last month because he thinks the market was expecting miracles for the iWatch. Dividend yield of 1.81% and are well positioned to grow it.

(Market Call Minute) He cut his position in half. Financial metrics are strong, but he takes the price signal which is underperforming and carves back his stake.

This is a really tough story. Feels it is one of those things that can go both ways. She tries to stay away from the really tough calls. Unless there is a really good reason for it to do better than not, then she stays away. Consumer preferences change so quickly, and it is hard to get ahead of the trends. Valuation is fine, but they hadn’t met expectations on their iPhone sales.

She exited because she did not see a lot of innovation coming out of it. There is only replacement demand for their phones. The earnings will still grow, but not as much. It is a mature company now. There are a lot of lower price products to compete with them.