Apple Inc (AAPL)

It's such a large company, operating in so many verticals that there will always be a reason to worry about it, but he's held this stock forever and won't sell it. Nothing fundamental about it has changed. They continue to develop in many interesting areas. Not worried about its future.

It continues to re-invent itself and now is a good time to buy.

Having iPhone as a major component of revenue poses a problem, considering each new iteration is not all that different. 27x forward earnings for a 10% EPS growth rate. Quality and value, given balance sheet and cashflow. 2.7x PEG ratio, not inexpensive. 7x forward price to sales, not cheap. China's restriction on iPhones is a headwind.

Is underweight it. It trades at a high 29x PE and they reported -1% earnings decline as well as -5% in revenue and -2% in iPhone sales, -20% in iPad sales and -7% in Macs all in the last quarter. What are you getting with this? Well, the free cash flow, gross margin expansion, opex under control. But 29x is rich. Would buy on a pullback.

It buys Qualcomm time, but the difficulty in reaching this deal suggests how hard it is to produce your own chips and maybe it shows how much Apple needs Qualcomm.

Revenues are flat, but the PE is high. The top and bottom lines need to increase and this could happen if there's demand for the iPhone 15 Pro, which looks promising. But also, is the consumer tapped out? Headwinds can also come from China which accounts for 19% of their revenues, given government intervention and the new Huawei phone competing for sales.

We all know and use their products, and they have a recurring revenue machine. Remove their Covid growth, and Apple's revenues have been anemic. Earnings always beat because they have a big share buyback. This year, shares are up 30+% in a great year. She sold calls and shares are at the high end. She's holding it long term. She wants to see more topline growth.

A core holding. Buy, don't trade this. Shares fell today on reports of a possible ban in China to prevent workers from taking their phones to work. Apple keeps outperforming the S&P, up 228% over the last 5 years,

It's overbought. His rule is that if a stock is more than 10% above its 200-day moving average, it will pull back.

Is moving up this week. This reflects what happens when people who have been sitting on the sidelines start adding to their positions--and Apple is the first place to go. It's a name the market knows and loves. Their services segment is improving; they have new momentum with the new phone. She expects a good number this quarter.

The valuation of Visa and Mastercard has been elevated, but the growth has supported it. AmEx has the cheaper valuation; they benefit from international travel. He owns a little Visa. The future of payments processing? It's Apple Pay, which kids use through their phones. The sector has a lot of moving parts and competition, so it's hard to say where it's going.

Why did this sell off this month? Sure, they have no new phone, but the service revenue was enough to keep things steady. It's insane that shares are down 22 points from its high. The Vision Pro will be a good seller. How can sellers be so obtuse? Partially blame the analysts for hyping this stock in the $190s and encouraging all to bet on the quarter. When the new phone comes out, the sellers will look at this moment and kick themselves.

MSFT is a must-own with the AI themes, but right now its PEG is 1.4x. AAPL is another must-own, but pricier at 2.7x. Both are all over the AI themes. He wouldn't trim either.

He disagrees with those who sold shares after their last report. Sellers felt there was no growth in the reported quarter, but he notes that that was not an important quarter for Apple. There wasn't a new iPhone. The new phone will matter and he predicts it will sell great.

Tech sector setting up for year-end rally.
Recent share pullback presenting a good time to buy.
Expecting further growth.
Fundamentally one of the best businesses in the world.
Extraction of further subscription value from user base will be main company goal.