Apple Inc (AAPL)

Hitting record highs today and will return to a $3-trillion market cap. Question: how fast does it go to $3.5 trillion or $4 trillion? There's optimism about their Vision Pro headset which will add to revenues. This stock is off to the races. The valuation is rich, but justified and can be maintained.

Investors aren't considering that their revenues are tied to China, which is a risk. Also, their valuation is high.

It's incredible that the largest companies--megatech--keep going straight up. But it's inevitable to take profits, like she recently did with Apple. Still a fine company. She added to Microsoft because she sees a little more runway ahead. Markets will more further, because the money sitting on the sidelines is entering the market. But eventually, the market will scrutinize valuations.

That's always given him pause, as 50% of revenue comes from iPhone sales. But strong competitive position is strengthening, moat is widening. So he's changed his mind. The valuation, north of 30x earnings, is what makes him pause now. Likes the business, exceptionally robust brand.

Happy to own Apple and Microsoft, but they've risen too far too fast and gotten ahead of their skiis, so he has taken some profits, but held onto the rest of the shares, because they can grow into their multiples.

It's moved from strength to strength and steadily higher. Buying back stock, so earnings tend to go up faster than actual earnings growth. FMV is way below, common with many growth stocks. As long as we remain in this bull market, definitely continue to hold.

He started to trim a bit just before the headset launch. Lots of people buy on the rumour, sell on the news, which happened to the tune of 30% after the launch of Apple Watch. 

Everything's working tremendously well. China and India are coming online nicely. Raised dividend. Price target of $183.50, which is not far. Probably can get it cheaper. One of his top 10 holdings.

Apple is pausing now after a strong run and that's refreshing. These tech stocks are pausing for now. It's ignorant to say that stocks that Apple just peaked and that's it. Tech, generative AI in particular, will have deep impact for the coming years. Let's see how Apple's new headset will fare in the coming year. He's bullish.

They launch a new product next week, a new headset. He always says own it, don't trade it. It has room to grown in places like India, Brazil, Vietnam, the Philippines. They already have a big footprint in China that can grow.

It beat on stronger earnings on i-Phones etc. He likes it a lot but it is growing at 10% with a 26 X trading price. Meta and Google, like Apple, are essential  companies but trade at much better valuations.

People are wrongly focusing on short-term problems. The service business is growing like gangbusters, has potential to be very large. Services side is higher margin. Wearables continue to grow, as will the phone business. Has lots of cash. A great business.

Can't predict earnings performance report today. QCOM had tough numbers, mobile market is slowing. Not sure if that affects AAPL. Above 200-day MA, but that MA is still moving down. 6.6x price to sales, in line with the tech market, and not as expensive as some.

Look for resilience in their report. Apple must say that revenue grow will slow; they will be conservative in their outlook. Will their contraction only by 5%? They have a base on 800+ million users for their iPhones, services revenue will remain strong, and nearly $100 million free cash flow that will fuel share buybacks of around $90 million. The market views it as a safe haven.

Apple reports tomorrow. The stock is up 30% YTD. Incredible. Expects revenues to be -4%, and earnings -6%. They buy back a lot of shares. A great company. She sold the August $180s and collected $5.30. It won't trade that high into August. Doesn't see them beating earnings; doesn't see a rise in iPhone sales.