Broadcom

AVGO-Q

He likes their dividend growth, but they grow by acquisition, therefore carry debt. When credit spreads blow out, it'll become tougher for them to do deals--and there are fewer deals for them to do now. Other semis that pay a dividend, though lower, are growing, and are in 5G are Xilinx and NVIDIA.

Down 11% YTD. Don't panic though, despite their challenges. He still likes it. Look at your overall portfolio. If Broadcomm occupies say 4%, then you're okay, but not at 20%. Trades at a reasonable 11x P/E. Semis are cyclical, high-growth, but high-volatility. Now, we're in the down side of the cycle.

Unlike the Facebooks and Googles of the world they have to make something to sell. And they have to make new and better on a continue basis. They are one of the most diverse players in the space. This industry is starting to mature and consolidate. The chip business is very volatile. (Analysts’ price target is $290)

(Past Top Pick May 4, 2018, Up 9%) For the past six months, it's been exciting to invest in this. Nice free cash flow growth, with dividends and increased share buybacks. In July, the shares dropped when they announced the acquisition of old-school tech company, CA Technologies. But they didn't explain why they bought this company until early-September. When the street heard this reason, shares rebounded. He still likes it.

(A Top Pick July 7/17, Down 11%) A few of the big acquisitions did not happen that he had expected. He still owns it and still buys it. You get 3.25% yield. It is cheap.

It was on an uptrend till late-2017, then suffered a series of lower highs and lows. Semi-conductors are breaking their 200-day moving averages. We've seen a consolidation period this year, because inventories have built up among the semis.

He likes it after the pullback, trading on good technical support at $204-206. Potential upside. Earnings forecasts have been rising. Excellent balance sheet. Buying at $205 should work out.

He is not a big fan of semiconductors at this time. In general, he wants to see good fundamentals that are confirmed by good technicals. At this point, the Broadcom technicals are not good. It has broken trend and for that reason he would not step into it. Regarding the semiconductor cycle, he thinks there is less downside this time than there has been traditionally because there are so many new categories that are creating accelerating demand for semiconductors, such as AI, machine learning, and autonomous driving. These will fuel demand even in a downturn. He would also not buy a semiconductor company based on its dividend growth--semiconductor companies should be showing strong revenue growth. He would wait until the chart looks better and if the fundamentals still look good, then he would buy. (Analysts’ price target is $287.16)