Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

It is one of the two main trophies. It has gone sideways since 2008. It goes up 50% and down 50%. This is a very volatile sector. You have to take advantage of the lulls when the stock is cheap.

Do you have a view of oil in general? Oil looks pretty oversold. He is not convinced to jump into oil in general. This company in particular needs oil to move higher to move up. (Analysts’ price target is $47.71)

Latest acquisition? They are buying the Devon oilsands assets. Maybe it is time to come back into the Canadian oil patch. It trades about 4 times cash flow. At this price and a good yield, it is time to start nibbling here. (Analysts’ price target is $47.00)

CNQ vs SU Both have excellent management teams and are generating free cash flow. Both pay dividends. CNQ-T does not have refining assets. Both are the go to names for investors out of Canada. On a value basis, neither are great value right now. There are more exciting names to own.

A great stock. It does not have up-stream and downstream protection. You can't predict the oil price. Hopefully we get positive news on Trans-Mountain. US investors want some policy changes in Canadian energy before investing here and those changes may happen. It has good risk/reward. There is no debt problem.

Fabulous company. Grown dividend 17 years in a row. Natural decline rate is about 12%, extremely low. If you had to buy one Canadian oil and gas and hold it for 5 years, this is the one. Better, and more diversified, than Suncor. Management has tremendous track record. Good long-term hold.

(A Top Pick May 18/18, Down 21%) A increase in commodity prices has been offset by lack of market access. He does not own any energy stocks currently.

There are no big projects going through and Notley's move to proffer WCS oil price was smart. This is one of the top Canadian oil companies. He's not in this space, but likes CNQ.

Crude oil is in a secular bear market, and it should top out around $80 in the next three years. He predicts a strong year in 2019, 2020 to be choppy (avoid oil), then it'll pop in 2021, because energy is a late-cycle play. He likes oil now for the next six months. He recommended CNQ this past week to clients. CNQ has had a good uptrend since the start of 2019. This could return to $46. Likes CNQ through December 2019, but be cautious in 2020.

Energy is tricky with a four year bear market. However, valuations are starting to get cheap enough. He does not own this. One of the largest producers. He just sees better opportunities in the space. (Analysts’ price target is $47.55)

A super-high quality company. They are bidding on the Jackfish assets and maybe the market is afraid they will over pay. Along with Suncor, the only assets in the space that are held by institutional investors. He thinks they will not benefit from a new flush of cash by investors, as they may sell this conservative holding in favour of stocks with more torque. (Analysts’ price target is $47.00)

All the stocks have moved, but still negative sentiment around Canadian energy. It's bumped up against $48-49 a number of times, so a strong chance it will get to high 40s or higher. Nice dividend yield, good job de-levering the balance sheet. Core position for him. For energy exposure in a high-quality name, CNQ is at the top of the list.

$42.55 is his target price. This is trading at the top of his value zone. He sees better value in Suncor. Current earnings don't justify the stock price.

CNQ vs. SU Suncor has higher dividend. Both big in oil sands. Both generate free cash flow. Suncor's said it will raise dividend and buy back stock. CNQ is also buying back. Suncor performance is much better. Until we get through October federally, and egress gets resolved, foreigners will stay away from Canada.

There were some short term indicators for selling that came on, so he is looking for a pause here. There is no resistance until $44.