Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ-T)

One of the best management teams in the world. Long-term perspective. Very strategic and disciplined capital allocation decisions. Every single employee is offered stock options, so they're all aligned with the same long-term goals. One of the best business cultures she's seen.

Likes the mix of approximately 60/40 oil to gas. Makes $$ even off these low energy prices; anything higher is a bonus. Recent acquisition elevated debt, but 1-2 years should sort this out and then they'll be back to paying 100% free cashflow to shareholders. Slow decline rate, with average reserve lifespan ~33 years. Stock came off with fears of Trump blanket tariff, which she thinks is overblown; NA energy is too intertwined for this to be viable. Yield is 5%, and the dividend increases.

If you're patient, a name to hold forever.

Canadian energy is still very good and should continue to be very good. There could be greater economic integration between Canada and the U.S.

It's oversold. Crude oil's price is turning up and we'll be getting a broad-based rally in energy stocks. You can add at current levels. It's testing resistance now. CNQ should bounce 10% in the next month.

He's starting to leg into oil, one toe at a time. An approach he'd recommend for the whole sector.

Bought a 2% position not long ago. May be breaking support, so that's the tough part. Seasonality is February/March, so may not see a lot of good activity in the patch until the new year. As long as the trendline holds, without too much aggressive breaking of it, he'd stay with it.

Doesn't own, but watches quite closely. First-class operator. A good buy when oil pulls back. Very difficult in this space to be counter-cyclical, and this one does it well. Economic payoff profile for oil sands is very attractive -- big capex up front, but cashflow for a very long time.

She owns pipelines, not energy producers. Crude oil's price has been down this year and the outlook looks weak. Trump is very pro-energy and wants to increase supply. CNQ trades at a premium, but has a strong balance sheet and historically has the flexibility to buy other companies. She can't predict oil prices. It pays an attractive 5.1% dividend.

Likes it. Probability that Trump gets away with tariffs is fairly small, he's just negotiating. Trump needs to be reminded that tariffs are taxes, and US taxes are already high enough. 

Increased portfolio of heavy crude, despite difficulties getting it out of Canada. De-bottlenecking the Keystone pipeline would be positive. Narrative on this name will likely be soft for a few months.

Oil price is low, OPEC is extending cuts. Expectations of a slower economy impacts demand. May also see challenges if Trump encourages oil production. The challenges are showing up in the oil stocks. 

Chart shows a breakdown, negative profile. He'd hold off for both. Next seasonally strong time is February, perhaps late January. At that time, he'd prefer CNQ.

Flat, but has done better than rest of energy group. Valuation's higher than some mid-sized producers, but it's earned its premium valuation. Demonstrated growth. Quality and safety, but paying for it. Gets more international attention.

He'd rather look at names with much lower valuations and better potential for growth and shareholder returns. Consider names like BTE, CVE, or VRN.

One of his primary holdings in the energy sector. He's fairly bullish on energy, particularly oil & gas. Great company.

He doesn't generally participate in the E&P space, as it's hard to make decisions based on the underlying commodity price. Bigger picture, still huge demand for Canadian oil and gas on world markets. EVs won't take over anytime soon.

Very strong operations. Very focused on shareholders by returning $$ to them and paying down debt. Would have been his top choice, until SU ended up turning things around.

One of the best management teams in the world. Share buybacks are in place and is a cash flow machine.

Generally, energy is a beneficiary of a Trump administration. Value in the energy market, given where oil prices are. Going forward, some of the US names may perform a bit better than Canadian names. If we avoid a recession (his view), then oil prices can move higher. If fiscal stimulus in China can push that economy, would benefit oil prices.

Yield is ~4.6%, no risk to that. Attractive name to own as part of your portfolio.

(2 for 1 stock split on 11 June 2024) 
Commodity bull markets last a long time once they get going. Pullback gives you an opportunity, he'd buy today. Especially given short life of US shale assets, companies like this should command a premium over the cycle. Plans to own for a long time.

Likes it. Well-run company. Wait until tax-loss selling ends in December. Seasonality for energy runs December-May, unlike the price of gas suddenly recovers. Buy on weakness for the long-term.