Canadian Natural Rsrcs

CNQ-T

Fabulous company. Grown dividend 17 years in a row. Natural decline rate is about 12%, extremely low. If you had to buy one Canadian oil and gas and hold it for 5 years, this is the one. Better, and more diversified, than Suncor. Management has tremendous track record. Good long-term hold.

(A Top Pick May 18/18, Down 21%) A increase in commodity prices has been offset by lack of market access. He does not own any energy stocks currently.

There are no big projects going through and Notley's move to proffer WCS oil price was smart. This is one of the top Canadian oil companies. He's not in this space, but likes CNQ.

Crude oil is in a secular bear market, and it should top out around $80 in the next three years. He predicts a strong year in 2019, 2020 to be choppy (avoid oil), then it'll pop in 2021, because energy is a late-cycle play. He likes oil now for the next six months. He recommended CNQ this past week to clients. CNQ has had a good uptrend since the start of 2019. This could return to $46. Likes CNQ through December 2019, but be cautious in 2020.

Energy is tricky with a four year bear market. However, valuations are starting to get cheap enough. He does not own this. One of the largest producers. He just sees better opportunities in the space. (Analysts’ price target is $47.55)

A super-high quality company. They are bidding on the Jackfish assets and maybe the market is afraid they will over pay. Along with Suncor, the only assets in the space that are held by institutional investors. He thinks they will not benefit from a new flush of cash by investors, as they may sell this conservative holding in favour of stocks with more torque. (Analysts’ price target is $47.00)

All the stocks have moved, but still negative sentiment around Canadian energy. It's bumped up against $48-49 a number of times, so a strong chance it will get to high 40s or higher. Nice dividend yield, good job de-levering the balance sheet. Core position for him. For energy exposure in a high-quality name, CNQ is at the top of the list.

$42.55 is his target price. This is trading at the top of his value zone. He sees better value in Suncor. Current earnings don't justify the stock price.

CNQ vs. SU Suncor has higher dividend. Both big in oil sands. Both generate free cash flow. Suncor's said it will raise dividend and buy back stock. CNQ is also buying back. Suncor performance is much better. Until we get through October federally, and egress gets resolved, foreigners will stay away from Canada.

There were some short term indicators for selling that came on, so he is looking for a pause here. There is no resistance until $44.

CNQ vs. Suncor Owns and prefers Suncor because of its downstream integration. CNQ though looks interesting now as it flirts with its 200-day moving average. Valuation is low at P/B and pays a 3.9% yield, which is high in this sector. The stock is discounted for CNQ. The major risk is that it's a pure play on WCS. Otherwise, a great company.

The best Canadian oil company and they have integrated purchases well. He's long owned this. The problem is that Canadian oil stocks have lagged the oil price, but CNQ will still benefit from this rising price.

This and Suncor are his top picks in this space. They have upstream, midstream and downstream to create revenue, which distinguishes them from a lot of oil producers. CNQ pays a bit of a dividend and is well-capitalized. Well-run

(A Top Pick May 18/18, Down 21%) There are concerns about restriction in western Canada about how much you can ship. There is seasonality to Nat Gas stocks and so there should be a pick-up in CNQ-T because of that. He sold last October.

They just raised their dividend by 12%. They beat cash flow per share and production. They are buying back shares agressively. Pays a safe dividend at 69% payout. He sees 2% production growth. Okay balance sheet. The only thing to not like is oil itself. Not enough railroads in Canada. Norway has announced it is selling its oil stocks (many no Canadian stocks are on their list). So, how big a position do you want in oil? Do you want to own oil forever anymore?