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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert)

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Stock Opinions by Mike Vinokur

COMMENT

It was telegraphed that Justin Trudeau would resign as Prime Minister, such as Freeland resigning in December. He's not sure why he took this long. The markets reacted positively. 2025 outlook: so much capital has flowed into the US to bid up wonderful companies like Mag 7, but only 25 companies make up 50% of the S&P market cap. Be careful with valuations and avoid recency bias (the last 2 years returned over 20% annually). Analysts are projecting sky-high targets for the S&P. Valuations matter, and the market is not cheap.

Unknown
WEAK BUY

Great management running a capital-lite business.  MAR puts their name on a hotel that others manage. A great business model. His one caveat is that hotels are a cyclical industry; if revenge travel ends, forward earnings could disappoint. US travel is strong, but not Europe. He's cautious about travel. He's surprised that with Airbnb and VRBO that hotel rates are so high.

lodging
BUY

A great operator, but prefers Enbridge for its diversification. PPL pays a good dividend. Their balance sheet is fine. Pipeline flows in North America will increase.

pipelines
DON'T BUY
NVIDIA Corporation

Loves the company and CEO, but the valuation is not cheap (he's a value investor). Yes, NVDA is setting the industry standard in chips. Remember that hardware is, unlike software, a huge gross margin business. As in the past, no one company can maintain a hold on an industry, so eventually margins will come down. You must have a strong believe that Jensen Huang can maintain this lead and that data centres' build-out ca last long term.

computer software / processing
DON'T BUY
Shopify Inc.

Wonderfully run, a Canadian success story, but its forward PE is too high (80x or 90x). SHOP can continue growing at a 20-30% clip and eventually earnings will catch up. But this doesn't provide enough of a margin of safety for a value investor like him.

0
DON'T BUY

Loves the company, but is valuation is full. A great CEO. He reckons the PE is a very high 100x and he doesn't know if the company cam growth into that PE.  They offer a great product, but the stock is not for him.

Technology
STRONG BUY
Enbridge

His like for ENG has nothing to do with Trump, but rather his belief that natural gas is the bridge solution to renewable energy. The volume of nat gas will jump a lot in North America, because a lot of industry is coming back to North America, because the cost of energy is cheap here compared to Europe and Japan. ENG is in the catbird seat, given their huge position in nat gas in Canada and the US. Canada's first LNG terminal is now online. Pays a great dividend. Lower interest rates will help.

oil / gas pipelines
BUY
Tourmaline Oil Corp
Impact of a 25% US tariff

He surmises that Trump's bark is bigger than his bite; there's a lot of cooperation between Canada and the US. The tariffs, if they open, won't last long, because they won't benefit the US (or Canada). He's bullish nat gas for the next 3-4 years. TOU has great management.

oil / gas
HOLD
Brookfield Corp

Managed well and owns several spin-offs, baby Brookfield stocks. The stock price has moved up a lot in the past year as has the group. But it needs a pause. This is not being negative about BN-T, but the correct stock price offers no safety. You can buy this, put it away and in 5 years shares will likely be higher.

investment companies / funds
PAST TOP PICK
Johnson & Johnson
(A Top Pick May 09/24, Up 0.2%)

You can own, collect the dividend and in coming years will likely be higher. This is mixed in with current worries over healthcare stocks, but this will pass. JNJ has stable earnings and cash flow. Happy to hold on.

biotechnology / pharmaceutical
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 09/24, Down 15%)

He still likes it, but recently they warned that earnings will be lower. There's a lot of value in this company. Collect the dividend as you wait. The telcos are tired of this price war, so prices to consumers will become more rational in time. He hopes the group lowers expenses, stabilize or raise EBITDA margins and use technology to improve performance.

Cable
PAST TOP PICK
FedEx
(A Top Pick May 09/24, Up 7%)

He sold it at $295 recently. Loves the company, but earnings revisions came down. He bought at $262. He may re-buy it if the price and valuation are right. FedEx is a dominant player and the management team proves they can execute. The founder family still owns a lot of shares, and such families don't make crazy decision to preserve their stake. Also, cost savings and a huge share buyback are plusses. Also, they have fewer unionized employees than UPS.

Transportation
DON'T BUY
Raytheon

Has a big defense contracting business. But Trump will cut defence spending, and will cut a truce between Russia and Ukraine and calm the Middle East war. Don't be in this space. RTX's valuation is too hight.

Defense
BUY
Veren

It's gone through a huge transformation from Crescent Point Energy, which created bad memories. But Veren is very different and offers huge upside. Caveat: Veren is tied to the price of oil. Crude oil needs to stay around $75+ for Veren to really work. Their cost structure and balance sheet are sound.

0
DON'T BUY
PepsiCo

A great consumer staples company. It's smart that they got into the snacks business, like Frito Lay. But it's a slow-growing, low-margin business. Pays a good dividend, but the valuation doesn't attract him, 15-20% too high.

food processing
Showing 1 to 15 of 134 entries