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Stock Opinions by Mike Vinokur

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Toronto Dominion

Never owned TD because it was expensive, but it could be interesting now. We know the US fine. They can't expand in the US, so what will US earnings growth be? Also, the credit cycle has another 6-18 months, so how much longer will banks have to hold reserves? He might buy in the low-70s and high-60s.

banks
COMMENT
Veren

Likes it. If you believe oil/gas prices will be higher in 1-5 years, Veren is interesting. But this is a commodity company, so it is volatile. New managers are smart with balance sheets and debt, so they don't need a much higher oil price to make money, but how excited will markets get if oil prices stay at current levels?

0
BUY
Suncor Energy Inc
SU vs. Cenovus

He owns and likes both. The difference is that SU has downstream operations with gas stations. Cenovus is integrated with long-life reserves in production plus many refineries (which has suffered major compression), so the upstream looks attractive. Both have great balance sheets and free cash flows and pay similar dividends. Another difference: it's unlikely Suncor can be bought whereas maybe Cenovus could. He gives the edge to Suncor.

integrated oils
BUY
Cenovus Energy
SU vs. Cenovus

He owns and likes both. The difference is that SU has downstream operations with gas stations. Cenovus is integrated with long-life reserves in production plus many refineries (which has suffered major compression), so the upstream looks attractive. Both have great balance sheets and free cash flows and pay similar dividends. Another difference: it's unlikely Suncor can be bought whereas maybe Cenovus could. He gives the edge to Suncor.

oil / gas
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Enbridge

Likes it. Expects it to keep pulling back a little after a strong run this year. They report in early November and he expects a good report. It's a great dividend. Their extensive pipelines carry nat gas and oil. Wait for till $53-54 to enter, though you could buy it here and let it run. Warning: this stock will move with interest rates and long bonds.

oil / gas pipelines
BUY
Caller holds 15% bonds in his portfolio, but falling interest rates haven't been a boon for bonds. What to do?

First, make a distinction between individual bonds and bond funds, because the former have a fixed maturity date so regardless of rates, as that bond approaches maturity the price will go to par. In the latter, the fund or ETF those bonds within those products will mature and go out and buy other bonds. If you have good corporate bonds with a staggered maturity, keep them. 

E.T.F.'s
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Likes it. Well-run company. Wait until tax-loss selling ends in December. Seasonality for energy runs December-May, unlike the price of gas suddenly recovers. Buy on weakness for the long-term.

oil / gas
HOLD
Alphabet Inc

They report today. He likes it for owning many businesses. The bad rap now is whether their monopoly on internet search should be broken up, but remember their big cloud, YouTube and ad businesses. Plus Waymo and a great balance sheet. They now pay a dividend. Don't buy into the print--could be volatile--but definitely a long-term hold.

Technology
PARTIAL BUY

They have a huge operation in eastern Canada. They have a royalty structure, like a toll road on iron production. With a slowdown in China, how much demand will there be for metals? He's not sure. Be careful. LIF is volatile, but long-term this is good and pays a gooD dividend. You can buy a partial position and average in.

Financial Services
PAST TOP PICK
CVS Health Corp
(A Top Pick Nov 28/23, Down 13%)

Still owns it and still believes has great assets. It's down because of management turnover and bad capital allocations, but it's fixable and the business is not dead. He has faith in new management.

specialty stores
PAST TOP PICK
Onex Corp
(A Top Pick Nov 28/23, Up 10%)

Very well-run. Still likes it. Their Q2 report noted book value of $150 while shares are $100. At some point this gap will compressed. They heavily buy their own shares.

mngmnt / diversified
PAST TOP PICK
Manulife Financial
(A Top Pick Nov 28/23, Up 65%)

Shares are near 2007 highs. Good balance sheet and managers. He likes the lifeco business, but he will start divesting MFC. MFC is no longer cheap.

insurance
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Altagas Ltd

They're not that tied to the oil price, because they're more into natural gas and a midstream segment. This has pulled back with most utilities, due to interest rates and general profit taking. A well-run company that pays a good dividend. Not a bad name in utilities.

oil / gas
DON'T BUY

He bought CVS instead. WBA did a big purchase of Boots which they may be regretting. WBA really operates pharmacies, plus a medical business. He prefers CVS for Aetna, their insurance business, pharmacy benefits and a medical business.

specialty stores
DON'T BUY
CI Financial Corp
CIX vs. BAM

Are very different asset managers. CI's balance sheet is not good. Prefers BAM, but shares have risen to a high valuation. Great managers and earnings stream (asset management fees).

investment companies / funds
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