Whitecap Resources (WCP.TO)

It's mispriced and should be higher. Are active acquirers which creates overhangs. The street perceives them as liking to do deals, so sentiment is poor, which is baffling. Until this perception changes, WCP will lag. But he likes their free cash flow yield and other metrics.

Is bullish oil. It's a trading stock. will sell at $11-12. Pays a fat dividend. They focus on shareholder value.

WCP is an energy company that is now trading at 6.0x times' Forward P/E. In the 4Q, WCP’s revenue declined 18% to $914M, compared to the same period last year of $1.16B and EPS is $0.49 compared to last year of $0.52, indicating decent cost control. Daily production remains largely unchanged at 166,500 BOE/day. Forecast for 2024 is for production 165,000 to 170,000. The balance sheet is solid, net debt went down from $1.9B to $1.4B, and the net debt/EBITDA is only around 0.6x. The company does have a decent capital return policy the current yield is quite attractive (8% dividend yield and 2% from buyback). Overall, a very decent quarter despite headwind from commodity prices.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Investors not happy with 2022 XTO acquisition. Ratio b/w liquids rich and natural gas not favorable. Questions around sustainability of dividend. Personally, thinks dividends are safe with a large margin of safety. Capital plans can be deferred if required. Oil prices starting to recover. Will continue to hold. 

It is in light oil and has done some acquisitions so the debt levels are higher now. Has a high dividend yield. She prefers Freehold and it comes without the exploration risk along with almost a 7% yield.

Not positive on recent moves by company - paying down too much debt. Would rather the company had reinvested cash into earnings growth rather than debt reduction. Also not a fan of dividends due to withholding tax. Would rather cash used on buybacks or earnings growth. Will continue to own shares. 

WCP cut its dividend in 2016 and 2020, but in recent years it has not. Cash from operations is highly positive at $1.822B in the last-twelve-months along with a solid balance sheet which makes us believe that the dividend is probably secure, barring a collapse in commodity prices. . The nine month payout ratio was 76%. 
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Mid-cap energy stocks have been strong, even with reduced fund flows from pension and ESG funds. WCP and ARX will continue to do well.

Never sell just for tax reasons. Whenever he's done this, it's been a mistake. Instead, ask yourself if your thesis still holds for owning the stock? If yes, hold on. If not, let it go.

Excellent business that owns large amount of shares in. Excellent management team. Safe dividend. Plan from recent M&A has been executed flawlessly. Low cost producer allows $55 WTI price floor. Expecting company to continue buying back stock and increasing dividend. Would recommend buying. 

We do not see any company specific news regarding WCP since its results in October but there have been some modest target price cuts since then. WCP continues to be a consistent monthly dividend payer and will move with energy prices in the short-term. The shares are cheap, yield is high and is starting to pay debt back down which is nice to see.
Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

Fine company. Firing on all cylinders, though impacted by weak energy prices. Can't go wrong with this.

Slight premium to other names. Overhang is its promise for M&A activity, likely to happen in 2024. 40-50% potential upside from here with $80 oil. Yield is 7.6%.

Aren't as shareholder-friendly as its peers, like buying back shares and paying down debt. Instead, WCP has been buying businesses for long-term growth. The market prefers higher dividends and buybacks. He isn't buying any oil stocks now.

Recent Q3 results mediocre. Share price has been weak due to results. Trading at premium to sector peers. Owns shares in company. Strong management team. Would buy more shares if price falls. Expecting a ~$14 share price given $80 oil price. 

Prodigious free cashflow being used to aggressively pay down debt. All while maintaining capital investments and treating shareholders fairly well. A good buy for a 2-3 year hold. He wouldn't sacrifice ARX shares to fund the purchase.