Stockchase InsightsWhitecap ResourcesWCP.TOBUYFeb 26, 2024

He has owned a lot of this. They bought a company last year and integrated very well. The outlook remains solid. Then, the Iran War spiked energy prices. He's been trimming WCP at $16-19. Buy at $11-12. He expects price targets to decline.

The oil floor has risen since the US-Iran war, but alot of supply will come in soon. The oil price will test $70. Sanctions lifted, Iran can sell at market prices. Canadian producers are well-positioned. The CAD is at 70 cents, which means C$90 a barrel (based on US$70 barrels). He likes WCP; they've consolidated into a sizable-enough player.

Loves the story. Lightened up on potential Iran deal. But on weakness (~$14-14.50), he'd be inclined to come back in. VRN acquisition was extremely timely. Good operators. One of Canada's premier oil plays. Likes management.

All-time high today. Meaningfully mispriced. Top assets in Montney and Duvernay. Sell your ARX right now and buy this. Continues to beat quarter after quarter after quarter. CEO has the most aggressive insider buying of any company he follows in Canada. 

Potential takeover (but, he really hopes, not anytime soon). Yield is 4.48%.

Hitting new highs. Great dividend. Very focused on returning capital to shareholders via dividends and share buybacks. Very strong cashflows. Higher energy prices go straight to the bottom line, so next few quarters should be even stronger.

Ranks highly in his rankings.

Is a huge fan of CNQ, but be cautious in energy now. If you own energy, sit tight and hold your gains. Valuations have risen a lot, though may not persist for long. He prefers CNQ. Is a strong compounder and return cash flow to shareholders while they reduce debt. He doesn't know where the price of oil is going.

Fine on return of capital. Wants it to reduce yield to shareholders and increase sustaining capital investments and new project investments. If you’re underweight energy, you need to get long. He’s very bullish on Canadian oils, but he loved them better at $60 than he does at $100.

Great name. Well run, likes management. Likes its ability to grow over time. Small cap.

Consider taking a little bit of profit. Doing extremely well. Volumes were ahead in latest quarter. Purchase of VRN really added to its scope.

At current prices, don't rush to jump in. He'd be more comfortable buying around $11-12. Not one to own just for the yield.

One of his largest positions. Lagged, up "only" 27% this year. In prime position to get re-rated. By buying VRN, increased market cap. Now has size and scale. 25+ years of tier 1 (ultra-economic) drilling inventory. CEO is one of the few who actively buys shares on the open market. Continues to drill some of the best wells in the Basin.

A projected 7x multiple at $80 oil would give you a $25 share price, 69% upside. Yield is 4.95%.

Great long term. Growth story to buy on dips. From a cyclical perspective, after the current rally, he'd be a seller at this point. Take a look at the 5-year chart.

It also depends whether you hold it in a taxable account or not. He's pretty sure we're going to go through a time when it's like 2022-2024 -- stock will go sideways and potentially lose you money.

If you're a trader in a registered account, sell sell sell sell. If you're a long-term buy-and-holder, trim a bit or buy some put protection. Don't throw new $$ at it. We're headed back to $60 oil.

Core holding in his income fund because of the dividend.

Kicking himself, as he sold when it reached shorter-term targets. Likes what it's doing. Most importantly, it stole VRN -- now seeing benefit. Good management. Valuation not excessive. 

Might get in again at some point. Yield is 5% and change.

Another name with a good yield for the income investor. Largest weight in his fund at almost 12%. 

Quality of management team and quality of assets are still misunderstood. At 5.1x, trades at material discount to peers. Beat expectations 8 or 9 quarters in a row. Healthy dividend of 6.2% is sustainable down to $50-51 oil. Ongoing, extraordinarily good well results in Montney, Duvernay, and elsewhere. Expects multiple expansion over time.

$60 oil would mean share price of $19, $70 oil means a price of $23.

Owns a bit in his dividend income fund. Great yield of ~7%, which he thinks is sustainable at current prices. If WTI oil moved down to $40-45 for any prolonged period, dividend might be cut. Great management, well run and well diversified. Some heavy crude (of concern with Venezuela), but a lot is lighter oil and natural gas, with some condensate.

He wouldn't have any problem buying it today, and look to add it if falls below $10. He tends to buy it below $10 and trim between $11-12 (though merger with VRN last year is new source of upside with the larger inventory base).