
NYSE:V
The valuation of Visa and Mastercard has been elevated, but the growth has supported it. AmEx has the cheaper valuation; they benefit from international travel. He owns a little Visa. The future of payments processing? It's Apple Pay, which kids use through their phones. The sector has a lot of moving parts and competition, so it's hard to say where it's going.
Fundamentally, it's worthwhile to understand that Visa is the granddaddy of the card business. It does more transactions that all competitors combined. 60% of business is international. More of a footprint in debit cards. Prefers Visa at a few multiple points cheaper. Potential of high $8 or low $9 EPS for next year.
He doesn't dislike MA, very similar structures and business plans. It's done well.
We don't have a 'internal thesis' on Visa, but the general thesis is that a large amount of transactions done need to go through the 'infrastructure' of either Visa or Mastercard. Also, companies need to accept these cards because not doing so could mean that customers are unable to actually buy good/services from that store. So, they also have some scale advantages due to their market share.
Fundamentally, they are very solid with 50%+ net margins and tend to grow the top-line at a consistent 10% annually. At 24X forward P/E, the shares might not be 'cheap' but we don't think it looks like an egregious valuation either.
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A good recession-proof choice, when you're not sure if we're going into a slowdown or recession. 12-month price target of $281.50. July results beat on top and bottom. Payments growth is 10%. International transactions up 15% just in the last quarter. Collaborations are increasing and enhancing its reach. Yield is 0.74%.
(Analysts’ price target is $278.57)