
NYSE:UBER
WIll robotaxis form part of their passenger network along with regular cars, or will robos form their own customer base and compete with Uber? Competitor, Waymo already operates in San Francisco and is expanding to cities like Atlanta and Miami. This news has hit Uber shares. Remember that freight Uber Eats makes up half of Uber's business. Would consider this at 24x PE and growing 15% topline. The robo threat exists, but won't impact Uber for years.
Let's look at the chart, as the first thing you do is check the technical structure. Stock's not only come down, but also fallen below the 200-day MA. The 200-day MA, itself, is starting to go sideways and downwards. Weakening. Guided lower on earnings.
Expected earnings growth rate is very strong double digits, and the PE isn't bad at 27x. However, the chart's telling you something different. Chart for much of 2023 and 2024 had been sideways. Potential for regulation to come along and hurt profits.
It sank 7.56% after reporting. Headwinds: robotaxi competition, Trump's close relationship with Musk/Tesla, and Uber's rideshare bookings missed in Q3-2024. Other numbers were solid: gross booking rose 18% YOY, revenue, cash flow growth and total trips all beat expectations. Their guidance for the quarter was in-line with expectations. But their Q4 GAAP operating income of $770 million badly missed the $1.19 billion estimate, but was hit by a $462 million hit from a one-time expense for legal, tax and regulatory changes. He feels that the robotaxi competition isn't that much of a threat. He won't give up on Uber.
Underpriced, misunderstood. Falls every time TSLA makes a statement about robotaxis, though there's no direct relationship. Will have a piece of a much bigger pie. Coordinating with Waymo. Advertising is untapped. Very well managed.
Now part of the S&P 500, so it's part of the passive buying of index funds and ETFs. Lots of promise at this price.
In his momentum mandate. Today's price is a good price to get in. Price target: $higher, for a long time to come. Developing a recurring revenue model. Expanding geographically. Fledgling meaningful profit growth will continue. Very bullish from a secular standpoint. Light years ahead of biggest rival, LYFT.
Always volatile. They lead this space, which needs consolidation. Also, what will Waymo do in taxi rides? He's always been nervous about this business--there's always demand for drivers and associated costs, and government regulations will likely going away under Trump. But what is Uber's real pricing power? It's never been a cheap stock. That said, they built a great mousetrap, but a great service is not always a great stock.
Selling a cash-covered put means you have money to buy this stock, then pick a level to enter. So, sell the April $75 put for $4. Uber is doing very well, trading at a good PE and they have a large car network. Growth lies ahead. Enter by selling puts.