
NYSE:UBER
In his momentum mandate. Today's price is a good price to get in. Price target: $higher, for a long time to come. Developing a recurring revenue model. Expanding geographically. Fledgling meaningful profit growth will continue. Very bullish from a secular standpoint. Light years ahead of biggest rival, LYFT.
Always volatile. They lead this space, which needs consolidation. Also, what will Waymo do in taxi rides? He's always been nervous about this business--there's always demand for drivers and associated costs, and government regulations will likely going away under Trump. But what is Uber's real pricing power? It's never been a cheap stock. That said, they built a great mousetrap, but a great service is not always a great stock.
One of the most mispriced stocks around. Idea of win/loss in the space is simplistic. Good quality companies will get their piece of the pie. Well-respected brand, good app penetration. Growing at 25% annual clip on topline and earnings. Advertising is the fourth leg of the stool, and this is just getting started.
Capital-lite; they don't own the cars. The Uber One membership boasts a huge take-up. They have the freight, ride share and Uber Eats businesses. Revenues grow around 20%. For every net revenue dollar, more will fall to the bottom line. Earnings and free cash flow will accelerate dramatically. The CEO has done a superb job and loves the new businesses like advertising.
(Analysts’ price target is $90.54)Is up 151% in the last 2 years, but late-October they reported an imperfect quarter and closed the year -2%. Is the pullback deserved or not? Analysts are very mixed. KPMorgan is bearish, that valuations will be capped until Uber better addresses AVs (self-driving), or fears that Trump could pass laws that favour Tesla and Elon Musk. However, he notes that Uber doesn't build its own cars; others do. Bulls see growth in rides, particularly less-dense areas, such as outside London and Paris vs. those cities. Also, bulls say that the adoption of AVs will take years, a long time. Goldman Sachs sees a hybrid of humans and AVs in the sector. Also, Uber has huge cash flow and announced a major share buyback. Verdict: keep an eye on the AV competition like Waymo, but the last quarter had many huge positives, and the stock is cheap vs. its growth rate. Buying now is an opportunity at a discount.
Markets are seeing some new weakness, so buyers might have a bit of time here. We think $57 would look good.
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With tech stocks, he has to think about all kinds of things including how ethical they are. How do they treat customers and staff? Many of the drivers are new immigrants who can't get Canada-certified in their chosen professions. He'll turn down stocks like this one or META if he thinks they're not ethical. In part thanks to UBER, traffic congestion has increased.
Trading around 30x earnings, not expensive.
Waymo in San Francisco is not hurting Uber's growth there. Bears will say autonomous vehicles will take over, but he thinks it'll be harder to do than people expect. Q3 disappointment was mainly due to one-time insurance cost spikes; mobility up 17%, delivery up 16%. Market believes in 34% EPS growth.
Wonderful play on the future, ubiquitous product, now used as a verb. Trades at 17.6x PE for 2026 with 34% growth.
His 12-month price target is $78, still some room. As you can see from the volatility, more of a tradable stock. Gets a lot of news, and the news creates the volatility. Trade it on the stock side, not on the options side.