Uber (UBER)

They reported great numbers, fell shares closed -7.56% because guidance was lower than expectations. This is a buying opportunity.

It sank 7.56% after reporting. Headwinds: robotaxi competition, Trump's close relationship with Musk/Tesla, and Uber's rideshare bookings missed in Q3-2024. Other numbers were solid: gross booking rose 18% YOY, revenue, cash flow growth and total trips all beat expectations. Their guidance for the quarter was in-line with expectations. But their Q4 GAAP operating income of $770 million badly missed the $1.19 billion estimate, but was hit by a $462 million hit from a one-time expense for legal, tax and regulatory changes. He feels that the robotaxi competition isn't that much of a threat. He won't give up on Uber.

Underpriced, misunderstood. Falls every time TSLA makes a statement about robotaxis, though there's no direct relationship. Will have a piece of a much bigger pie. Coordinating with Waymo. Advertising is untapped. Very well managed. 

Now part of the S&P 500, so it's part of the passive buying of index funds and ETFs. Lots of promise at this price.

His 12-month price target is $78, still some room. As you can see from the volatility, more of a tradable stock. Gets a lot of news, and the news creates the volatility. Trade it on the stock side, not on the options side.

Company profits are expected to rise at a record date. Fantastic job at raising capital - latest bond was raised at 0%. Potential for growth continues to be strong. New avenues of revenues in freight and food. Not overly worried about competition from Waymo and self-driving cars. 

Still very much behind the name. Great in mobility and delivery. Last year and a bit has finally been profitable. Very impressive growth rate ~25-27%, yet still attractive on price to book. Concerns about self-driving, but Uber has the ability to organize all that and it's not easy to do.

In his momentum mandate. Today's price is a good price to get in. Price target: $higher, for a long time to come. Developing a recurring revenue model. Expanding geographically. Fledgling meaningful profit growth will continue.  Very bullish from a secular standpoint. Light years ahead of biggest rival, LYFT.

Sold off on fear of autonomous vehicles plus competition. Believes it will be the dominant player. Expensive stock, but business is growing rapidly. Buy and hold. No dividend.

Always volatile. They lead this space, which needs consolidation. Also, what will Waymo do in taxi rides? He's always been nervous about this business--there's always demand for drivers and associated costs, and government regulations will likely going away under Trump. But what is Uber's real pricing power? It's never been a cheap stock. That said, they built a great mousetrap, but a great service is not always a great stock.

One of the most mispriced stocks around. Idea of win/loss in the space is simplistic. Good quality companies will get their piece of the pie. Well-respected brand, good app penetration. Growing at 25% annual clip on topline and earnings. Advertising is the fourth leg of the stool, and this is just getting started.

Weak technicals. 200-day MA starting to slide sideways to slightly down. Trading below 200-day. Not exactly expensive at 29 forward PE, with pretty healthy growth rate. Higher beta at 1.2x the S&P 500.

Capital-lite; they don't own the cars. The Uber One membership boasts a huge take-up. They have the freight, ride share and Uber Eats businesses. Revenues grow around 20%. For every net revenue dollar, more will fall to the bottom line. Earnings and free cash flow will accelerate dramatically. The CEO has done a superb job and loves the new businesses like advertising.

Is up 151% in the last 2 years, but late-October they reported an imperfect quarter and closed the year -2%. Is the pullback deserved or not? Analysts are very mixed. KPMorgan is bearish, that valuations will be capped until Uber better addresses AVs (self-driving), or fears that Trump could pass laws that favour Tesla and Elon Musk. However, he notes that Uber doesn't build its own cars; others do. Bulls see growth in rides, particularly less-dense areas, such as outside London and Paris vs. those cities. Also, bulls say that the adoption of AVs will take years, a long time. Goldman Sachs sees a hybrid of humans and AVs in the sector. Also, Uber has huge cash flow and announced a major share buyback. Verdict: keep an eye on the AV competition like Waymo, but the last quarter had many huge positives, and the stock is cheap vs. its growth rate. Buying now is an opportunity at a discount.

Future growth looks strong. However, unsure on future of automated cars with competition from Waymo etc. 

Markets are seeing some new weakness, so buyers might have a bit of time here. We think $57 would look good. 
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