Brendan Caldwell Uber UBER-N BUY Dec 30, 2024

It has two scenarios, a ride-hail program and robo taxis. Robo taxis could begin to create their own customer base. Waymo is giving competition. Ride-hailing is only half their business with Uber Eats and freight being the other. Uber Eats involves a rapidly growing advertising business

Great, high-quality business. Very profitable, with 40% gross margins. Growing ~15% a year. Valuation reasonably expensive at 32x forward PE. If you own, hold. In a pullback, one to potentially put on your buy list.

Hit all its numbers. Q4 was a modest beat. 21x PE for 2026, growing at 28%. One of the best techy names out there, and the aggregator of all the autonomous vehicles in the system. He'd look to buy more.

He sold some shares a few weeks ago. Good news is that robo-taxis won't happen for a while. Bad news is that robo will cost somebody more, and he can't figure out the economics, but will slow down growth.

Revenues are up $6.8 billion in a strong quarter. Gross bookings were up and are converting cash flow. He remains bullish.

Valuation keeps him out. Some plays you just miss. Amazed by how well it's navigated competition and expanding delivery services. Management's done an outstanding job. 

Sitting now atop its 50- and 200-day moving averages and finding support.

Is held back by a misconception that ride-sharing and autonomous driving will dislocate Uber. Wrong. Uber already partners with Waymo, so will participate in that. Uber is undervalued.

Has grown cashflows, very encouraging. Taking share from LYFT. Over several years stock's been volatile, but hasn't done that much due to looming robotaxis and autonomous vehicles. If that picks up steam, competitive dynamics change; UBER would move from handling both supply and demand, to being just one of many suppliers chasing demand.

Multiple's come down, showing good fundamentals. Watch the space. Waymo has no experience in the space, whereas Uber's really well positioned. That partnership will work well at first, but it's the future he's concerned about.

Tesla's reputation has taken a hit this year due to Musk's highly polarizing involvement with Trump. This has taken the robotaxi story off the table, allowing Uber to roar. But robotaxis were never a threat to Uber in the first place.