Tesla Inc (TSLA)

He targets $82 or -61%.  If Tesla had the same valuation as GM, Tesla shares would be $10.

Has been slumping in Q3 because of production worries and weaker production numbers. True, demand for their cars remains high. But last week's report saw a top and bottom line miss as free cash flow came up short by over $1 billion. They're cutting car prices to stay competitive. Gross margins has slipped quarter over quarter. This is not the Tesla of the last few years. Elon Musk delivered a downbeat outlook on the company and the global economy. That said, he won't count Tesla out.

They report after today's bell. The options market points to a +6% or -6% move higher. Will they be at a trough in margins? What are they doing in AI? She owns it long-term. Tesla is not just a car company.

They're a capex machine, and there's a glut of EVs in the market. They're reducing car prices, which is not good. Sales are declining in China, a key market. Also, they can't make money supplying their battery-charging network.

The fundamentals are retreating. They cut car prices, so revenues estimates are down nearly 50% for the quarter. Will margins fall below 20%? This is key. They have to deliver a strong earnings report.

Autos are mired in the UAW strike now. Past strikes tend to be a good time to buy shares, though. He prefers GM over Ford for its higher margins, and its EV program competes well against Ford, though Tesla is the winner in EVs (surprises him). Ford and GM are trading at a reasonable multiple, but Tesla's is much higher, which gives him pause.

Volatile, of course. Early this year, it based, then fell a bit and rose to a higher high--a good sign. It may struggle, but he's relatively bullish on Tesla.

Musk has navigated China's political landscape well. She isn't worried that Beijing will say, No more Tesla in China. Rather, Beijing continues to give a discount to domestic EV-makers, which forces Tesla to lower prices and therefore reduce its margins.

He added more puts today. Thinks shares will go lower.

Volatile, up 110% before today, now 120%, trading at 80x forward PE. Is this a car or auto company? Their gross margins are going down and lack pricing power (are lowering prices).

They need the car business to be a tech company, and they are facing a lot of competition now in EVs, much different from 10 years ago.

Tesla was upgraded today with 60% upside based on their new supercomputer, Dojo: Has been very volatile the past year, so manage your risk and position accordingly. Don't get intoxicated by the extreme price moves up. The upgrade is based on the success of self-driving cars and taxis, but we've heard this before and we don't see that trend today.

He's bought puts on Tesla. He won't short it, but Tesla faces a lot more competition. Witness them cutting prices by 25%. It's highly capex business. It's overvalued. 21% of sales come from China whose own EV companies are killing it. It's crazy to buy Tesla at these levels.