Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU.TO)

(Market Call Minute.) Likes natural gas and this has been a star.

The oil prices are down from the $106 level to $91, but if you look at the two year futures, they are up on the year. If you look at the discount from the current price, it widened to 15% and is now back down to 3. Most of the correction is over. TOU-T is a great company. He did not buy it because it was new. CPG-T has had a history of buying up companies in their area that are doing well, so potentially could acquire TOU-T.

His model price is $48.11, a negative 6%. It is hitting right on its value. but it has had a negative transit of EBV +4. He would be very watchful. It looks like it wants to go to EBV +3 of $41, which would create some value.

(A Top Pick Oct 8/13. Up 31.17%.) They continue to hit the ball out of the park. Will exit this year at about 150,000 barrels a day equivalent. They have a huge contiguous land with all kinds of different zones that they can build. 2016 will probably be at about 250,000 barrels a day. It always looks expensive. Strong management team. You can’t go wrong owning this kind of company. He would use this weakness as an opportunity to pick away at a great company at a very reasonable valuation.

Down 15%, so you can buy this at almost an average multiple, which is the 1^st time you have been able to do that for years. Great track record and great management team. Thinks production BOE’s per day goes from 120 this year to almost 250 by 2015, a double.

Today it is just falling with the market. The energy patch is down today. Oil is down $1 today so fund managers are selling. Thinks they will have a great Q1 with production growth. It is his largest holding and the market is giving you a buying opportunity. They are a growth company now; by late 2016/17 he thinks they will have to decide whether to buy someone or pay a dividend, which he would prefer.

You cannot argue at all with what Mike Rose has done. They continue to do fantastic things. He is a serial entrepreneur in this space and will probably continue to do it. Thinks it goes higher and eventually gets taken out.

(Top Pick Aug 19/13, Up 34.01%) One of his largest holdings. They have a huge amount of acreage and the well results keep getting better and better and better. Great management teams can identify great acreage. Confident they will formalize a 20 rig program for next year. Huge inside ownership. Coming catalysts.

(Market Call Minute.) Loves this one. Strong, well-financed company.

The next period of seasonal strength is from August through until mid-September. All the energy stocks have had a great run in the first half of the year. It has now broken below its support. Wait for the correction to play out and the basing pattern develop.

Rock solid management team. The long term on this is that it will be built up and then sold to a large major. Continuing to grow via the drill bit. He would be comfortable holding it, if he owned.

Tourmaline (TOU-T) or Paramount (POU-T)? This is a case where you have to choose the better of 2 good companies. They are both pretty good, but he would put this one far and away, as probably the best managed company in the oil/gas sector. Their forecasted growth is very much in the bag. Very visible over the next 3 or 4 years. They don’t pay a dividend.

Kicking himself for not buying it. A great story going forward. No dividend. He would like to see it pull back before buying any.

If yield is what you are looking for, this does not pay a dividend. However, it has had tremendous growth and is extremely well-managed. Has been watching this for some time, but on a valuation perspective, it is just a little bit more expensive than what he would like to see. If it were to pull back about 10%, he would very definitely be interested in it.

(A Top Pick July 30/13. Up 33.13%.) His largest holding. A lot of natural gas stocks in the Montney have been unlocking a lot of value by getting better and better at drilling and containing the wells. A lot of this company’s wells are coming on stream at twice what they had budgeted. Thinks this has 40% upside from today’s levels, a $75 stock because their acreage just keeps getting better and better. They keep coming out with new plays. Have 10 years of high-grade inventory.