Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU.TO)

Not bullish on energy, but TOU very strong pick.
Natural Gas focus will be a good long term bet (less cyclical aspects).
Excellent management team. 
Very good M&A operators.
Founder led company.
Must own energy name.

Fantastically well run. Nat gas prices are very low, but won't stay low for long. Nat gas is cheap in NA, but very expensive in Asia. Ships nat gas as LNG through the Gulf of Mexico, really good margins by doing this. When the Kitimat LNG station opens, they can ship direct. 75 years worth of drilling locations, without doing acquisitions or exploration. A legacy holding to pass down. Yield is 1.74%.

He doesn't know where oil prices are going to go, but he's confident that oil demand will be pretty strong over the next 5-10 years. Fantastic fundamentals. Own this instead of utilities, pipelines, or banks. 

It moves with the natural gas prices. It is very well managed, is a leader in its field in Canada, and is the best pick for a natural gas company. It is the first to lock in natural gas prices in Asia and can sell directly to U.S. customers. There has been very strong insider buying of $9 million, with $8 million coming from the CEO and 600 000 from the CFO. Only $350 000 worth of stock has been sold.

Balance sheet and management are still exceptional. Over 2022, returned a lot to shareholders in terms of dividends, about a 10% yield including the special dividends. Great assets and discipline. He's positive on oil and nat gas. Best pick in the nat gas space.

Don't buy now if you're looking for capital appreciation. It's discounting nat gas price meaningfully higher than current price, as it should because current price is not sustainable. Nat gas inventories are high and supply will grow this year. LNG capacity buildout is a catalyst for 2024/25, not for now. 

Incredibly well run, great assets. He'd take a look around $45.

Apples and oranges comparison, fertilizer vs. natural gas. All NTR's commodities have rolled over, earnings disappointed, he sold. NTR is a good company, valuation not good, not the time to own.

Likes and owns TOU. Gushing cashflow. Special dividends on top of regular ones. Dividend increase. Biggest and best nat gas producer in Canada. Commodity producers are slaves to the one thing they can't control, but TOU breaks the mold based on strategic contracts. Inexpensive 9x earnings, financially very strong. He's a buyer here.

Natural gas performs well from March to June.
Not seeing performance this year.
Would own shares for the short term.
Very strong company.

Largest natural gas producer in the country. Key to the story is the management team. Fortuitously sold assets before pandemic to stockpile cash and acquire cheap assets. Shares down 30% from highs, in sympathy with price of gas. Profitable at $1.50 gas. High quality. Special dividends. Strong operating group. Buy for the long term.

Prefers this to VET. Likes natural gas in Canada, but don't hold a lot of these stocks, because things can change suddenly with these commodities. Remember 2014 when things change dramatically? Pays a good dividend that grows. He owns 10% in raw oil and gas producers, while 20-25% is too high. TOU is good, but he own Arc Resources.

He met with management last week in Toronto. They have 75 years of inventory which is not all booked yet. It is Canada's largest natural gas producer and fourth largest conventional liquid producer and owns most of its infrastructure. He anticipates special dividends of maybe 5% which could bring the total yield to around 9%. It is $20 below where it should be. Natural gas has a better outlook especially in 2025. Investors have switched from gas to oil but they will come back.     Buy 14   Hold 0   Sell 0

Great company, great operators. It's checked back, and he'd be buying. Thinks it will continue to pay out the special dividend because they're generating excess free cashflow. Great balance sheet. In nat gas names, TOU and ARX are the top 2.

The oil and gas companies were the best performers in 2022 and are now the worst performers. Tourmaline is the fifth largest natural gas producer in North America and probably the largest in Canada, with some of the best assets. It has a superstar CEO who has built other companies successfully and is buying stock in the company. The question is can a company grow production per share and can it keep the cost of production low. Tourmaline can do both. Has a great balance sheet and is at a good valuation.