Stockchase Opinions

Brianne GardnerTourmaline Oil CorpTOU.TOBUYOct 31, 2025

Not a core position for her, though some clients own it in their accounts. Stock's been quite volatile. Strong free cashflow, low debt. Secondary offering of $200M of TPZ shares recently is a positive. Street's price target is ~$67-77. Forward PE of 11x suggests it's undervalued. Potential infrastructure expansion could drive future growth. 

Has done well despite commodity price volatility. Trading below 50-day and 200-day MAs, RSI is near neutral. Support around $59. Insiders are really accumulating, as are institutions. Attractive for value investors.

She prefers CNQ and ENB.

$61.53

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$67.44

As of Oct 26, 2026. Market Open.

oilgas
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 17/26, Up 9%)

He's trading this many times. The chart is choppy and rangebound, a definite pattern. Buy around $60 and sell around $66 and repeat it.

WEAK BUY

What to buy in energy should depend on your outlook for oil vs. natural gas. Oil has more downside if things start getting better in the Middle East. Nat gas has way more upside, so he'd go that way. Names he prefers to BIR are AAV, TOU, and PEY (in that order).

DON'T BUY

The CEO has done a great job. It's the biggest nat gas producer in Canada, but he doesn't like exposure to the nat gas price in Canada. It trades at 7x PE and is worth that already, so there's little upside.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 07/25, Up 10%)

Canada has finally figured out that if we want to be rich, we have to sell to more than just Americans. Finally building pipelines to the West Coast, and starting to export nat gas out of Kitimat. Stock's still hanging out at a discount rate.

DON'T BUY

They had a massive growth phase, but can't growth that large anymore. This is natural. It's trading with natural gas which is bouncing around.

TRADE

He trades this often. The chart is in a definite range. It has bounced recently and he will sell around $68.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 25/25, Down 1%)

Lots of catalysts, nice story. LNG ramp will be "when", not "if". Paid a nice dividend to wait.

DON'T BUY

His team is more focused on oil than natural gas. Nat gas is more of a show-me story. This name is a serial disappointment. Lots of opportunity, with ~2400 drilling locations in the Montney. Technical picture is languishing. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Aug 26/25, Up 10%)

Long-term story still intact. Challenge for nat gas is the Iran conflict -- US oil companies drilled more, which produced excess nat gas and depressed the price. The whole ecosystem has underperformed. Peace in the Iran conflict will be a positive.

STRONG BUY
Investor's worried.

He doesn't let the stock market dictate his conviction and concern level. He follows the fundamentals and earnings. How's the balance sheet? Are they raising the dividend? Most of it is daily noise, just ignore it (unless you're a daily trader). He urges the investor to own stocks for retirement, and not worry so much about the day-to-day. 

Great business. A slam-dunk Buy here. Focus on the next 3-5 years. Thinks it'll double production over the next 5 years. Natural gas prices should be a lot higher.

TOP PICK

A trade, not investment. The chart is rangebound from $58-68. Buy low, sell high.

(Analysts’ price target is $71.26)
DON'T BUY

High quality name. Leader in natural gas in Canada. Very low cost operations, good drilling inventory in Western Canada. Long-term structural tailwinds from electrification, data centres, and power demand.

That said, it doesn't matter how strong the company or the balance sheet is, it can't escape weak commodity prices. And that's what we're facing right now. Stock's been sideways over past year, barely positive. 200-day MA flat. This name carries a bit of beta and volatility. Be cautious.

Instead, look at a more conservative and integrated name such as CNQ. Or move to the pipelines.

Unspecified

If owned he would switch to something else. He is critical of corporate strategy and the stock hasn't done much for the past few years. There is too much supply growth in natural gas so Tourmaline has cut its Capex growth going forward. It is very resource rich with decades of drilling inventory. Needs a better natural gas price.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Her firm's replacement for ARX. Below $60 is a good time to buy. Largest nat gas producer in Canada, low cost. Nat gas prices are very low right now, but she's very positive on them in future.

DON'T BUY

About 80% gas, 20% oil. One of the big 6 names in Canada. Widely held, and by lots of institutions. ARX is being taken out, so this name is the last one standing that's predominantly gas. Very well run. Trades ~7x cashflow, fairly valued, not a lot of upside. Fairly heavy capex program.

Not a huge fan of Canadian nat gas, as pricing in Western Canada is atrocious. He's more favourable to Canadian oil. Dividend is ~3.5%.