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Tourmaline Oil CorpTOU.TOBUYOct 31, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 06, 2026. Market Open.
He doesn't let the stock market dictate his conviction and concern level. He follows the fundamentals and earnings. How's the balance sheet? Are they raising the dividend? Most of it is daily noise, just ignore it (unless you're a daily trader). He urges the investor to own stocks for retirement, and not worry so much about the day-to-day.
Great business. A slam-dunk Buy here. Focus on the next 3-5 years. Thinks it'll double production over the next 5 years. Natural gas prices should be a lot higher.
High quality name. Leader in natural gas in Canada. Very low cost operations, good drilling inventory in Western Canada. Long-term structural tailwinds from electrification, data centres, and power demand.
That said, it doesn't matter how strong the company or the balance sheet is, it can't escape weak commodity prices. And that's what we're facing right now. Stock's been sideways over past year, barely positive. 200-day MA flat. This name carries a bit of beta and volatility. Be cautious.
Instead, look at a more conservative and integrated name such as CNQ. Or move to the pipelines.
If owned he would switch to something else. He is critical of corporate strategy and the stock hasn't done much for the past few years. There is too much supply growth in natural gas so Tourmaline has cut its Capex growth going forward. It is very resource rich with decades of drilling inventory. Needs a better natural gas price.
About 80% gas, 20% oil. One of the big 6 names in Canada. Widely held, and by lots of institutions. ARX is being taken out, so this name is the last one standing that's predominantly gas. Very well run. Trades ~7x cashflow, fairly valued, not a lot of upside. Fairly heavy capex program.
Not a huge fan of Canadian nat gas, as pricing in Western Canada is atrocious. He's more favourable to Canadian oil. Dividend is ~3.5%.
Iran conflict prompted a lot of natural gas drilling in the US, and so the price collapsed. LNG Canada allows exports to higher-priced markets in Asia. New floating gasification plants will also add capacity. More upside. (You could take some of your oil profits and redeploy into gas names, which look really cheap.)
Not a core position for her, though some clients own it in their accounts. Stock's been quite volatile. Strong free cashflow, low debt. Secondary offering of $200M of TPZ shares recently is a positive. Street's price target is ~$67-77. Forward PE of 11x suggests it's undervalued. Potential infrastructure expansion could drive future growth.
Has done well despite commodity price volatility. Trading below 50-day and 200-day MAs, RSI is near neutral. Support around $59. Insiders are really accumulating, as are institutions. Attractive for value investors.
She prefers CNQ and ENB.