Tourmaline Oil CorpTOU.TOBUYOct 23, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 17, 2026. Market Open.
Iran conflict prompted a lot of natural gas drilling in the US, and so the price collapsed. LNG Canada allows exports to higher-priced markets in Asia. New floating gasification plants will also add capacity. More upside. (You could take some of your oil profits and redeploy into gas names, which look really cheap.)
It's the biggest Canadian natural gas driller, but hasn't benefited from the US-Iran war, because North American nat gas prices have held (can't ship it abroad). TOU is managed well. They're building their infrastructure to lower the cost of the gas fields and this coincides with higher nat gas prices. Free cash flows will spike as capex falls and LNG contracts kick in.
(Analysts’ price target is $70.72)Paying you really well to wait. At the time, he bought it for the nat gas market finally turning; all those catalysts are still in place. Still cheaper than it ought to be. Not an "if" story, just a matter of time. Sit and enjoy your dividend; will start to work probably in the not-too-distant future.
Never discount the important of dividends to your total return! Underwhelming, while a lot of other energy stocks have really taken off. Has "oil" in its name, but it's actually Canada's largest nat gas producer. SHEL acquisition of ARX was a watershed moment in the Canadian oil patch and, in particular, nat gas.
Still grossly undervalued.
Like both, but TOU has been sideways, because they are investing in capex, but turning back to shareholder returns. So, TOU should return to vogue. TVE has been a tear lately but trades at 11x forward PE with good growth. TVE will be a little more volatile.
Natural gas prices in Western Canada have not been great. Huge position in the Montney in BC, and it's only about 5% drilled out. What he's hoping for is flattening or decline in US production, plus huge demand from LNG. This would tip the supply/demand imbalance toward the supply side and move prices higher.
At that time, TOU will be printing money. Till then, it's just a waiting game for the price to turn as you collect a nice dividend.