Michael Simpson, CFATourmaline Oil CorpTOU.TOHOLDOct 03, 2025

He's long traded this. Its range is around $58 and $68 and that's where you trade it. You may buy it right now. Loves it. It's almost easy money.

Iran conflict prompted a lot of natural gas drilling in the US, and so the price collapsed. LNG Canada allows exports to higher-priced markets in Asia. New floating gasification plants will also add capacity. More upside. (You could take some of your oil profits and redeploy into gas names, which look really cheap.)

Her replacement for ARX, which is being bought by SHEL. Lots of upside with potential LNG expansion. Real disruption of supply with the Strait of Hormuz. Other countries are looking to our safe jurisdiction. 

Good management team, great assets. Yield is 3.28%. 

It's the biggest Canadian natural gas driller, but hasn't benefited from the US-Iran war, because North American nat gas prices have held (can't ship it abroad). TOU is managed well. They're building their infrastructure to lower the cost of the gas fields and this coincides with higher nat gas prices. Free cash flows will spike as capex falls and LNG contracts kick in.

The best-run natural gas play in Canada. The stock is volatile, so you can trade it.

Paying you really well to wait. At the time, he bought it for the nat gas market finally turning; all those catalysts are still in place. Still cheaper than it ought to be. Not an "if" story, just a matter of time. Sit and enjoy your dividend; will start to work probably in the not-too-distant future.

All energy stocks have come off because we've had (cynically) a "peace scare" in the Middle East. This company's big thing is natural gas, and he likes that. Energy sector will continue to be robust.

Also likes, and owns, CVE and PPL.

The US-Iran war changed the LNG world, given the Strait of Hormuz closure. This gives Canada a huge opportunity. TOU already supplies US producers.

He likes energy stocks. It's rangebound between $58 to nearly $70. So buy and sell at the bottom and top of this range. He collects the dividend.

Never discount the important of dividends to your total return! Underwhelming, while a lot of other energy stocks have really taken off. Has "oil" in its name, but it's actually Canada's largest nat gas producer. SHEL acquisition of ARX was a watershed moment in the Canadian oil patch and, in particular, nat gas.

Still grossly undervalued.

Exporting through LNG Canada to capture Asian pricing for nat gas is going to be big.

Like both, but TOU has been sideways, because they are investing in capex, but turning back to shareholder returns. So, TOU should return to vogue. TVE has been a tear lately but trades at 11x forward PE with good growth. TVE will be a little more volatile.

Short term, what happens to the oil price and in the Middle East is going to kick these stocks around. So it's hard to pick an entry point. Take your time and leg in over several months.

He owns CNQ instead.

Frustrating longer-term base for a while. Resistance ~$80, but the lows are getting higher -- buying is getting more aggressive. Seeing a breakout of the range. "Smart money" is long natural gas, which typically sets up for a rally. 

He bought at the bottom of their range and sold at the top. Many times this has broken out, many times it has failed to sustain that. The blockage of oil in the Middle East effects everyone. He would sell shares soon.