Stockchase Opinions

Tony Ciero, CFA and CFP Tourmaline Oil Corp TOU-T RISKY Aug 01, 2025

Being affected by volatility in energy prices. Not a large company like a SU or CNQ that can weather the storm. He owns it more as a speculative play. OK as a 1-2% position maximum as long as you have a diversified portfolio. No fundamental issues, still thinks poised for growth long term. Needs to continue ramping up production.

$57.810

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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BUY

Natural gas play, and a more stable way to provide energy for data centres.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 04/24, Up 9%)

Harks back to his view that total return is important. Natural gas is up ~50% from a year ago. With LNG Canada coming on, anticipates nat gas prices improving materially through the end of the year. Business fundamentals are best in class. CEO has been buying shares. Not a lot of flash, but they know what they're doing and keep growing earnings per share.

BUY

He focuses on the top third of relative price performers in a group. The best companies tend to keep getting better. Good dividend plus dividend growth.

TOP PICK

Despite the name, Canada's largest natural gas producer at ~13% of the total. Likes its capital discipline and lean operating efficiency. 21% stake in TPZ. Early mover to secure market access to delivery hubs on US and Canadian West Coasts. Consistently able to get higher pricing than peers. Generates lots of cash.

Cargo shipping from LNG Canada (as soon as this weekend) will benefit the whole sector. Kitimat project has potential to meaningfully shift supply/demand balance of Western Canadian nat gas, due to Asian demand. Yield is 3.10%, and there are special dividends too.

(Analysts’ price target is $76.61)
TOP PICK

It's actually natural gas ;)  There's an incredibly low gas price, as there's just too much gas in the system. There's an idea that by 2026, there might actually be a tighter gas market for the first time in a long time. Special dividends equivalent to the current yield. Collect your dividends and wait for that catalyst. Incredibly successful Canadian story. 

We're now exporting gas to other countries. Highest-quality company he can find while he waits for the catalyst to kick in. Yield is 3.2%.

(Analysts’ price target is $76.76)
HOLD

Lots of optimism about the future of LNG in both Canadian and US natural gas stocks. Remember though, we're in the middle of July and that's not generally a friendly time of year for these companies. No fundamental issue. Doesn't see gas prices being broken. Give it a bit of space. As we get closer to fall, if you have time, you're probably in good shape.

BUY

His firm really likes the producers. Good company. Quite bullish on nat gas, and it should translate to the producers over time (with some lag).

BUY

Good time to buy. He bought in last month or so. Very good operator. Secret sauce is that it has the best drilling inventory, many decades worth. Largest nat gas producer in Canada, about 13-14%. Owns much of its own infrastructure, which gives them operational flexibility. Smart about diversifying away from a single access point for delivery. Shareholder friendly. Importantly, CEO is a very large shareholder.

BUY

Likes it. Especially likes stocks where the founders are major shareholders, as goals are aligned with other shareholders. Will continue to make money. Lower dividend, but they do a lot of special ones. Worth owning. Now trading at lower end of its historical range.