Teck Resources Ltd. (B) (TECK.B.TO)

This one is tough. (Sold his position.) He can’t say it is a strong Buy or that it is a strong Sell. His model price of $69.73 is 140% above the current price, but what is happening is that the model price is decreasing over time because earnings estimates have been grinding lower. If it went to $34.50, he would hit the Sell button. If it got down to $20, he would be a buyer.

Your senior of the somewhat reduced metal space. It has its good mines, and is somewhat exposed to the oil sands, which worries him a little. Has a great history of going up and down, but basically it is a big copper producer. Copper is looking pretty strong.

Zinc is unloved and nobody talks about mining, it’s all Google and Facebook. At some point these things will sell off and the money is going to go into unloved and forgotten spaces. This is trading at 7X earnings and 90% of BV. They are buying back stock. Generating a lot of free cash flow.

The stock has been doing quite nicely and has a nice FMV, potentially huge upside based on the earnings forecast. However, at the top, mining companies always have massive earnings and massive FMV’s. The market doesn’t pay for them. Thinks it has decent potential to about $34.

It has a period of seasonal strength from the second week in January until May of each year. This last year it did not work so well. It is in a trading range with the trend to the downside. Wait until we get closer to the second week of January.

Looking at the commodity spectrum, this one comes right to the top of the list, because of the 3 stools, metallurgical coal, zinc and copper. Met coal tanked 2-3 years ago and had a remarkable recovery at over $300 a ton. Collapsed to $150 a ton, and is now trading at around $200 with a bias to probably going lower. That kind of spooked the street. What was forgotten is that this is probably the largest zinc producer, and is trading at multiyear highs. Inventory of zinc globally is about 11 days. Where zinc is a play today, copper should be the play 2-3 years from now. The price is pretty attractive. He would be looking to Buy more than to Sell today.

Look for very strong 3^rd quarter results. The estimate is around $1.20 versus about $0.20 last year, and that is going to be a positive factor. Technicals are a bit mixed, where the stock is trying to form a triangle. If it moves above the triangle, that would be positive. On a momentum basis and relative strength basis, it is kind of neutral. Historically this has done very well from approximately January through until May of each year.

This has had a very volatile history. It has been bounced between $3.50 several times over the last couple of decades. Right now, it is in the middle of that range. Coal price has probably peaked, which is about 50% of their revenue, and there will be negative pressure from that. On the other hand, about 25% of the business comes from zinc, and another 25% comes from copper. Those 2 businesses are looking better. Half the businesses are doing well and half are under pressure. They also have a big investment in an oil sands project, which is high cost oil at the end of the pipeline, and he does not like that part of the business. He wouldn’t buy it here.

In the last day or so, we have seen a few of the mining stocks suffering from fairly rapid setbacks. What was driving this company up to now was a very good met coal market. Right now, he thinks people are stepping back and saying “We have seen some strength in commodities lately, but how sustainable is it, and how likely is it going to last.” The pullbacks might be a bit of a buying opportunity.

This has exposure to met coal, copper and zinc. Met coal prices tend to be quite volatile, and have been recovering. Also, zinc prices have been improving. Of all the commodities, she feels zinc is the most favourable. Hasn’t been adding to her holdings. Would like to wait for it to pull back a bit more, as well as more clarity as to what met coal prices look like for the balance of the year.

The Chinese just sold a big chunk of their holdings. This is kind of a premier resource stock. It is almost like a mutual fund, because it has a little bit of everything. The chart shows it is in a bit of a down trending movement. There is a lot of volatility, but net/net it has been selling off since the last part of 2016.

Up 32% on this. What should I do? Any time you are up a lot in a stock, it never hurts to take a little money off the table. The outlook for the company is solid. They have benefited from commodity prices, particularly met coal and copper, increasing recently. A pretty diversified base metals company. Have had a lot of debt, but are starting to pay that down and deleverage the balance sheet, which is one of the reasons the share price has done well. Over the next couple of years, because the capital expenditure is going down, you are going to see increased free cash flow from this business, which will allow them to pay down more debt, allowing the equity price to continue to appreciate.

In the past, he has very much liked the base metal commodity space. Had thought that with the growth demand in China these were must own names. Had a change of heart in 2010-2011, and completely eliminated his exposure. This lives and dies with the price of metallurgical coal and other commodities.

He says sell! When commodity prices were high and we were bullish about Chinese growth, the stock was $40-$60 when it was firing on all cylinders. He does not think we are going back to that. We already rallied back to the $34 area. He is a better seller than a buyer.

He has trouble buying this one low and selling high. This is generally a trade. It is not going to run up again and so it is probably a better sell than a buy.