TSE:TD

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO)

175.12
+1.08 (0.62%)
as of Nov 2, 2026, 4:49:48 pm Market Open.
2219 watching
0
HOLD

She sold some shares after the penalty was announced, because the measures would cap their US growth, an attractive area for growth. Their discounted valuation reflected concerns. They can still grow in Canada. It trades under 10x PE and the dividend is over 5%. If TD can get their act together and grow earnings, she PE could rise.

HOLD

Sold on the money-laundering news. The fine wasn't the issue; it was the lid on acquisitions and cap on asset growth.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Will underperform for a little while as they deal with issues, but it trades cheaply at 9.5x PE. Question is: Will earnings fall? He likes TD below the current $75 and would have a half-weight position, but there's a chance this dips below $70, then would add more.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 11/23, Down 4%)

It reached its lowest level on Friday in four years but is holding its guidelines. There is an over-reaction to the asset cap in its U.S. component. 9 to 9 1/2 X earnings is too much of a discount. It has the potential to outperform next year.

WATCH
Strategic review of all operations. Investor day in 2H of 2025 to provide clarity.

Earnings disappointed today, withdrawing some guidance. Not looking good from a fundamental perspective. He thinks they're just getting rid of all the bad stuff at this point, a clean sweep for the new CEO. 

Technically, pulled back to the bottom of the range of support, looks like it will hold. Could have a few days of really negative performance. Once things settle down, it will meander around here a bit. Eventually, the negative news will wear off.

BUY
How will the US fine impact earnings report tomorrow?

The fine of $3B (over $4B CAD) was mostly provisioned for in stages. Focus will be on adjusted EPS. Likes the business, though displeased with breakdown in governance and integrity. Tarnished, but not beyond redemption. Discounted valuation is compelling -- margin of safety, attractive entry point. Cautiously optimistic that the worst of the bad news is behind it.

BUY

He's been selling MFC, with most proceeds going here. Sold off on money-laundering fine and asset cap in US. Market's negative on it, but he sees many ways to grow earnings: grow Canadian operations and US commercial. Great opportunity at 10x PE.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 20/23, Down 3%)

Thought the fine was already priced in, so he was surprised by the huge drop once announced. Big issue is that US franchise was on autopilot, without the great returns from the Canadian side. A chance to reboot. Risk management should improve, and the multiple will come back. Acquisitions are restricted. Lots of capital on hand.

Not a high multiple at 1.2x book, 10x PE. Probably can't buy it any cheaper. Yield is over 5%.

DON'T BUY

He's swing-traded it twice, but not in it now. You always have to decide if there's a reason for it to go back to the top of its range. Fundamental analysis doesn't like the stock anymore because of all its mistakes, even though looks enticing on the technicals. They've stepped aside.

HOLD

Banks in general are entering a normal level. Concerns about high interest rates and defaults are mostly in the past. Banks are good to hold here if you want some dividend-paying stocks. Can't imagine this one will be stuck in the penalty box forever.

BUY

It has come way down with the money laundering scandal. It decided what it will pay but the stock dropped again so it has been doubly punished. Now trading below 10X - the valuation and dividend are OK. Has a new CEO and will manage the U.S. situation OK so could be fine over time. Any positive news could cause it to head back up so it is buyable.

BUY

Money-laundering fine. Asset cap on growth will really hamper growth in US. Perhaps can focus more on Canada where they've been increasing deposit base and credit card business. Depressed valuation is an entry point. Attractive dividend. Opportunity to turn it around over the medium term.

DON'T BUY

Is cautious the banks, but the band have rallied the last 6 months except this. He wold nibble at it here, that's all. Doesn't see the penalty for money-laundering being lifted.

DON'T BUY

If you're in a bull market, you want to own the strongest stocks you can find. He prefers "good, getting better", some kind of positive change that could add to the valuation, and where other people agree with him.

In penalty box. Facing painful changes. Many shareholders are underwater, so you have to fight your way through all those who just want their money back. He owns RY, CM, and NA.

DON'T BUY

Paid a huge fine recently, but remains among Canada's top two banks. The bad news is impacting the stock price, so there's lots of volatility. She sold TD 1.5 years ago and holds Royal instead. That said, it can go up from here, given the number of mortgages approaching renewal in the coming 12 months. Be cautious and wait for the share price to recover, despite its attractive dividend.

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