
TSE:TD
Earnings disappointed today, withdrawing some guidance. Not looking good from a fundamental perspective. He thinks they're just getting rid of all the bad stuff at this point, a clean sweep for the new CEO.
Technically, pulled back to the bottom of the range of support, looks like it will hold. Could have a few days of really negative performance. Once things settle down, it will meander around here a bit. Eventually, the negative news will wear off.
The fine of $3B (over $4B CAD) was mostly provisioned for in stages. Focus will be on adjusted EPS. Likes the business, though displeased with breakdown in governance and integrity. Tarnished, but not beyond redemption. Discounted valuation is compelling -- margin of safety, attractive entry point. Cautiously optimistic that the worst of the bad news is behind it.
Thought the fine was already priced in, so he was surprised by the huge drop once announced. Big issue is that US franchise was on autopilot, without the great returns from the Canadian side. A chance to reboot. Risk management should improve, and the multiple will come back. Acquisitions are restricted. Lots of capital on hand.
Not a high multiple at 1.2x book, 10x PE. Probably can't buy it any cheaper. Yield is over 5%.
It has come way down with the money laundering scandal. It decided what it will pay but the stock dropped again so it has been doubly punished. Now trading below 10X - the valuation and dividend are OK. Has a new CEO and will manage the U.S. situation OK so could be fine over time. Any positive news could cause it to head back up so it is buyable.
If you're in a bull market, you want to own the strongest stocks you can find. He prefers "good, getting better", some kind of positive change that could add to the valuation, and where other people agree with him.
In penalty box. Facing painful changes. Many shareholders are underwater, so you have to fight your way through all those who just want their money back. He owns RY, CM, and NA.
Paid a huge fine recently, but remains among Canada's top two banks. The bad news is impacting the stock price, so there's lots of volatility. She sold TD 1.5 years ago and holds Royal instead. That said, it can go up from here, given the number of mortgages approaching renewal in the coming 12 months. Be cautious and wait for the share price to recover, despite its attractive dividend.
She sold some shares after the penalty was announced, because the measures would cap their US growth, an attractive area for growth. Their discounted valuation reflected concerns. They can still grow in Canada. It trades under 10x PE and the dividend is over 5%. If TD can get their act together and grow earnings, she PE could rise.