TSE:TD

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO)

158.00
+1.76 (1.13%)
as of Jun 4, 2026, 2:37:20 pm Market Open.
2224 watching
0
Investor Insights
star iconJun 4, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 64 opinions in the last 12 months.

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) has shown remarkable resilience since the fallout from its money laundering penalties, recovering significantly and achieving record earnings in the last quarter. However, despite this recovery, many analysts express concern about its current valuation, noting that it trades at high PE multiples compared to historical norms for Canadian banks. The consensus indicates a prevailing belief that TD is slightly overvalued, with suggestions to trim positions rather than buy more at this stage. While the bank's strong fundamentals, solid dividends, and potential for growth in the Canadian market are highlighted, regulatory constraints in the US and diminishing growth prospects are factors pushing some investors to reconsider their positions. Overall, TD's stock performance reflects the ongoing challenges and opportunities within the Canadian banking sector.

consensus icon
Consensus
Trim
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Valuation
Overvalued
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Similar
RY, RY
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 13/24, Up 14%)

Keep holding - there have been sweeping changes to the board with good potential. It sold its stake in Schwab for $10 billion so it is well capitalized now. It is trading at 10 1/2 earnings which is better than the other banks. TD had under-performed and if catching up to its peers that would give 10% upside as well as the dividend.

TOP PICK

This is his choice for those looking for income. Used to trade at a premium, but now trades at 10-11x PE, an absolute discount to peers. Really good balance sheet, and shareholders will benefit. Schwab sale should net ~$20B, and most of that will be for share buybacks. Business won't grow, but EPS has really good growth potential. 

Collect the dividend for 3-5 years while you wait for a multiple re-rating. That'll give income-seeking investors a better total return. Yield is 4.9%.

(Analysts’ price target is $85.81)
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Is a lower-volatility stock, so options are less expensive than others. Also, call premiums will be weighed down by the dividend. Wait for a pullback before entering and selling a put. 

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 13/24, Up 14%)

Will stick with it, still trading at a discount to peers, 10.5x PE vs. 11.9x PE. Investors are regaining some confidence recently with a new CEO, big board changes, including a compliance officer from JPM. Plus, it pays a 5% dividend yield. It has underperformed, but TD has more upside as it catches up.

WATCH

During the Trump tariff sell-off yesterday, TD may have been the best performer among the Big Five banks, partly because shares are down far already, but also because they are diversified outside Canada. The more Canadian-exposed banks got hit worse. Nobody knows the impact of tariffs, but TD is in a better position than peers.

DON'T BUY
Dividend safe?

Yes, very safe. Payout ratio is ~53%, in line with the bank average around 54%, so put away that worry. The better question is do you want to put new $$ to work here right now? It'll go higher if Canadian banks go higher, and they will grind higher under friendlier regulations. If banks go up over the next year, TD will participate but move up less.

Relative to the group, this one's going to be in the penalty box for quite a while. Growth will slow due to extra compliance. M&A seriously challenged due to lack of targets in Canada and regulatory constraints in US. You're better with US banks here, or BMO in Canada.

If you own it already, you'll be fine to hold and collect your dividend. If it goes to $78-79, write some puts and oblige yourself to own it.

Board changes and accelerated CEO start date are steps in the right direction. Gave investors the right message about being serious and changing the guard. Market cheered that, but stock probably got ahead of itself.

SELL

Money-laundering issues made them rethink their thesis. Limits on US personal banking growth mean it can't execute on expected numbers. Rotated out and into RY with its strong wealth management, giving their portfolio the needed US exposure.

TOP PICK
New CEO starting earlier, executives' pay gets trimmed.

Chose this Top Pick yesterday, and applauds the disciplined fiscal governance announced today. Brand tarnished on both sides of border, but it's fixable. New CEO can reset the strategy. He'd support divesting Charles Schwab. Very competitive Canadian personal and commercial banking franchise, and they may lean harder into this. Discount brokerage may become more competitive. Yield is 5.1%.

(Analysts’ price target is $83.73)
DON'T BUY

Its growth strategy was built around the US, but is now dead after the money-laundering penalty. Wells Fargo was punished for a long time and so will TD. It'll be rangebound for a while.

PARTIAL BUY

Likes it and bought it 3 weeks ago on a dip. Run well and has high capital levels. Pays a nice 5.3% dividend. Doesn't know if the price will fall this summer, but you can buy some now and more later to averaging in, if you're long term. The penalty was so severe that TD can't buy a company in the US for a while, unless Trump de-regulates. More likely is collecting the dividend and seeing meager stock growth. 

BUY ON WEAKNESS
For TFSA or RRSP long term

He likes buying a company when they've had a corporate issue, short of toxic, like TD. TD is very cheap vs. RY. Wait till this falls to $70-75. He's in accumulation mode with this. We'll see what the new government's policies are. TD is one of his few banks.

BUY

Hasn't performed as well as others. Hasn't sold or trimmed, but added. Long-term play for next 5 years, don't expect a recovery in the next few months. Management changes and US asset cap could lead to more weakness. Premier asset in US and Canada. Canadian earnings very strong. Trades at steep discount.

DON'T BUY

The chart shows a downtrend since early 2023 and is testing the bottom at $75. Meanwhile, its peers like Royal are breaking to the upside. He expects a wider market correction to come, too, so you don't want to hold a laggard like this. You could nibble at TD, but he sees more downside.

DON'T BUY

It's painful getting into trouble with US regulators (fines and restrictions). How long will it take the market to digest the extra oversight? Typically, at least a year; TD could be dead money for a couple of years. He has sold TD shares. You need a long time frame. He wouldn't buy TD now.

DON'T BUY

Will be in the penalty box for a long time. For comparison, look at the progress of WFC since 2018.

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