Ryan Bushell Toronto-Dominion Bank TD-T WATCH Feb 03, 2025

It has had a great run and is the best preforming Canadian bank. All banks have recovered since April. You can probably count on a 5 to 7% return plus the dividend.

Pleased to see how the market's revalued it higher. Light at end of tunnel after regulatory scandal. Trying to reset the growth algorithm by September 29 investor day, which gives the new CEO time to assess things. 

Great Canadian personal and commercial banking franchise. Good and growing capital markets. Good scale player in wealth and asset management. Still one of the largest banks in the US; growth will be challenging, but he has faith in its creative strategies.

Will have to work through the pessimism of US blunder. The discount on that was excessive. Will continue to make good ROE and drive the business forward, regardless of whether the Canadian economy slows down in the next year or two.

It ranks in the middle of the path. Has estimated earnings growth of 8% in 2025 and 5% in 2026. Free cash flow is down 21% year over year. Overall return of invested capital is less than 1/4 of 1%. If switching you could go to CIBC

Has broken to new highs, along with its peers, but volumes have been declining recently. This is set up for a correction after this big run, so wait for that correction. He's very bullish on Canada for the next few years (Ottawa will spend on infrastructure). As for US, that is forcing Canada to look at Europe and China for more trade, such as natural gas. We're looking globally now, and not only to the south.

Surprising how much it's come back, due in large part to sentiment having been so negative. Penalties will dampen growth. Still, numbers for both US and Canadian financials are starting to accelerate. Canadian banks over-provisioned for loan losses; if they don't have to tap into those reserves, should see really strong numbers going forward. On technicals, all the Canadian banks are moving up the ranks.

He got out recently. Caught up on valuation once people realized how over-capitalized they were in wake of US fines. Still no growth in the US, so where's growth going to come from? He switched into CM, but now that's looking expensive.

Recently lightened up on re-rating, but still likes it. Now trades at almost parity or slight discount to peers. US missteps are behind them. Incurring lots of expenses to step up anti-money-laundering compliance. How long will they be in the US penalty box? WFC was there for 7 years, and he hopes it won't be that long for TD.

Feels should be able to reach growth guidance of 7%. Will have to pull other levers such as tightening belt in Canada, growing capital markets, or competing more fiercely ("elbows up";).

Up 32% YTD, great run. If you hold and it's reaching a point where you're comfortable selling, you'll probably want to pick a strike that's close to where the stock's trading. 

If you go to October and sell the $105 call, you'll only get about 90 cents. But if do it 4-5 times in a year, it'll really add to the overall yield. Worst-case scenario is that the stock goes up and you have to sell at an even higher price.

More growth to be had. Once they get over the hurdle of the money-laundering fine, will continue to be a Canadian bank. Canadian banks are protected by the Government of Canada, so nothing's going to happen to TD. If Canada's able to get rid of interprovincial trade barriers, TD and the banks will be primed to do well.

If you don't own any of the other big 5, he'd add some exposure there instead. But if you own them all, and you have some cash on hand, then sure, buy some more of this for additional dividends while you wait for the stock price to appreciate.