Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO)

Take the bigger picture view. TD makes $14B in profit a year. So whether the fine is $2B or $4B, it's in a position to get through this. Remember that over the last 100 years, you never went wrong buying a Big 5 Canadian bank stock that was beaten down because of trouble. They always come back with a 100% success rate. Pays you a 5.5% yield while you wait.

Even the CEO mentioned it could get worse before it gets better. Don't buy a full position now, but you could start one.

She'd pick this one right now, trades at discount of 9x forward PE. She's owned for many years as a core holding and is sticking with it until she can assess growth potential in the US. No one knows exactly what the penalty will be. An asset cap would be almost worse than a penalty. 

It is still a Canadian bank, very profitable, increasing business from immigration, and with only 1/3 of revenues from US.

Sold TD in a heartbeat the minute he caught a whiff of the money-laundering issues, as this might bar further acquisitions which would really stunt growth. He invested in BMO and RY instead. 

Banks have gone sideways for a long time, though you get your 4% yield. His goal is to do better than that. The financial services he likes the most are growing much faster than any of the Canadian banks, with dividends that aren't much below that of the banks.

Though his preferences may be deemed volatile and riskier, there's also the risk of non-performance. TD is fine, but not a lot of growth. See his Top Picks.

Look elsewhere. The outcome of their problems is unknown. Look what happened to Wells Fargo, which took years to recover. But we don't know the outcome yet.

Issues such as money laundering. Will most likely remain in the penalty box for a while. It'll take a couple of quarters of good results and no headaches for the stock price to recapture where it was. Still a high-quality bank and business. Anytime there are issues, stockholders get concerned and some are going to head for the exit. Will be fine to own over the next couple of years. If you bought today, he wouldn't be surprised if price went down or sideways.

Not a huge fan of the banks right now, unless you're looking for income. Wait a month or two, and perhaps we'll see a bit of a rebound so you could make some capital growth on top of the dividend.

Prefers the telcos to the banks. In telcos, there's not much growth, but these stocks are undervalued. He picks Telus. TD: if there's no more bad news coming, this is probably a buy, but many investors are sitting and waiting. TD is likely undervalued to other banks, but wait 3 months to see how their overhand shakes out.

Problems not done, but mostly built in at these levels. Don't know amount of pecuniary damages. Spending $600M to enhance systems. Outlook for banks in 2024 not great, picks up in 2025. Trades at discount, nice dividend. More of a buy than a sell.

It is not doing well because of the money laundering scandal which was mostly in the New York area. 3 billion is the highest amount of penalty being considered. Other banks are in trouble too. It makes $14 billion a year in profit so he still likes it.

Up till now, one of the best operators. This is a blemish for a year. He's concerned that regulators will want to make a point. TD took reserves but it won't be enough for the potential penalty of $2-2.5B. Remember Wells Fargo. 

Big company, makes a lot of money. Dividend not in jeopardy, but may not be increased anytime soon. May be prevented from further acquisitions. Probably no share buybacks. Plus, we could be in a credit cycle with defaults escalating. 

Have to look at valuation. He's waiting. Likes it and its capital levels. If stock pulled back a bit more, he may take a position.

(A Top Pick Apr 28/23, Up 4%)

The Canadian banks reflect the growing weakness of the Canadian consumer. Also, TD has issues with US regulators about money-laundering allegations. Eventually, TD will pay a fine and move on. TD is one of the top Canadian banks. Buy on weakness, but shares could be flat for 12-18 months. He likes it though.

Investors are most concerned with the two issues of succession planning and US regulatory scrutiny. You have to believe that TD is vetting suitable candidates for when the time comes. Money-laundering fine expected to be north of half a billion $$.

Strengthened risk management. Outsourced regulatory support. Overhang is creating buying opportunity at a cheaper multiple than peers. Remains a good, high-quality bank, second-largest in Canada. Trades at 10x, 5% yield.

You need a bank with a strong Canadian franchise with some US exposure. TD ticks these boxes, having a large US presence. It's the only Canadian bank he owns. The money-laundering overhang and investor impatience over the CEO being there for 10 years has already baked into shares. Invest in this for the next 10 years, even starting with a partial position. The TD grows 10% annually, and they continue to have a strong presence in Canada and the US.

Not used to being in the penalty box. Rumblings on succession planning. Overhang on money laundering and penalties, which hits all banks at some point. Well run, risk averse. Attractive valuation. Most excess capital of any Canadian bank, with options to acquire, buy back shares, or increase dividend.

TD and BNS are the main ones in client portfolios. Both are more on the value side. Looking to the next 3-5 years, both have reasonable earnings growth and potential for multiple expansion.