Royal Bank (RY.TO)

He's starting to nibble at TD. This and RY are the top two Canadian banks. But in a low-interest rate environment, it'll be hard for them to make money.

Among the Canadians, RY, TD and NB are trading at small premiums to book value. These are solid choices with decent loan books. Canadian consumers have heavy debt and that is a problem, and this risk will rise as this slowdown continues. Can the banks long-term sustain their dividends? The banks are allowing customers to defer some payments, though, so they are "team players" but long-term there is a concern.

Canadian Banks including TD-T and RY-T. He wishes we had earnings out of the banks because we are flying blind. It is hard to see anything positive out of then. The stocks have fallen a lot. His preferred is NA-T. It is hard to be materially bullish on the Banks unless you are a long term investor. He would not add more to positions, just hold.

TD vs RY? He owns both. For the near term he slightly favours RY. Both are core holdings for them. He likes RY as they have a larger capital marketing business. This will help them as the retail side will lag for the next while. Volatility in capital markets will help their results. TD Ameritrade is in a price war for commissions in the US. You could buy both, right here, right now.

Big 6 Canadian Banks? Their view has been for the past few years that the environment for banks was becoming challenged as interest rates moved towards zero. The upcoming recession will make things worse. He has holdings still with TD and RY. In Japan, where interest rates have been at zero for a long time, bank stocks there have not done well. He sees the same issue for banks in the US, but feels the Canadian banks will do a little better, but like sprinting the wind. Be cautious about being too overly exposed to any one bank.

Canadian banks should weather this storm and the dividends are safe. Now is a pretty good entry point, but you'll have to stomach upcoming very weak earnings. You'll get a good return in a few years.

RY vs TD? These are almost apples to apples. He thinks RY is the bluest of blue chip bank stocks. Both are good quality and both could drop another 5-8% lower from here. He would recommend that you could buy half of your position here.