
TSE:OTEX
This summary was created by AI, based on 21 opinions in the last 12 months.
Open Text (OTEX) is facing skepticism from various analysts due to its weak organic growth, challenges posed by AI disruption, and a history of struggling with acquisitions. Many experts have pointed out that while the stock has a low price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of around 5.2x and offers a decent dividend yield of 4%, its long-term pattern has broken down significantly, leading to doubts about its future growth prospects. The stock is seen as being in the 'red zone', with significant resistance at the $35 mark, making it a tricky investment. Though some advice to consider the stock for potential recovery, there are recommendations to look elsewhere for better-performing tech companies, primarily due to ongoing management changes and concerns related to debt. The general outlook remains cautious as the company attempts to reposition itself amid industry shifts.
OTEX reported a net loss of US$48.7 million in its fourth quarter, down from earnings of $102.2 million last year. This was attributed to acquisition expenses. Revenue of $1.5 billion rose 66.2% year-over-year marginally beating estimates. Annual recurring revenue of $1.2 billion rose 56.4% year-over-year, and cloud revenues of $452 million were up 9.7% year-over-year. Quarterly enterprise cloud bookings rose 12.3% to $164 million. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $463 million, reflecting a margin of 31.0%. The company also announced opentext.ai, a strategic approach to advance how customers can apply artificial intelligence with OpenText software. Management guided the MCRO acquisition to return to organic growth in FY2024, earlier than expected. We think it is still some time to see valuation recovery for OTEX. We would consider anything under $48 to be a reasonable entry point.
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Global, site-based and cloud-based. Installed base of 150M+ users. No customer concentration risk. 80% of revenues are recurring. Sluggish organic grower, but very capable serial acquirer. Just closed most skeptical acquisition, seems to be going well. Shareholder return over 20 years of 13.4%, 10x the TSX tech index. Deeply discounted at 9x earnings vs. its 10-year average of 13x. Yield is 2.38%.
(Analysts’ price target is $63.80)
He bought then sold it (though missed the peak). Wants to rebuy it. They like their latest acquisition, and they grow by buying, not organically. They migrated well from licensing to cloud services, which will raise their PE over time. Trades at a great 12x PE.