Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO)

14.61

-1.90 (11.51%)

as of Nov 2, 2026, 7:15:00 pm Market Open.

128 watching

HOLD

Stock has been under pressure because they have an extended exposure to debt. This leads to a fear of a distribution cut. He doesn’t think it will. They have about 170,000 BOE’s per day. He thinks it is attractive but it is not his favourite. Very good long-term hold.

WATCH

With a lot of these oil companies, as compared to the commodity, are struggling. A basing formation happening. He is looking for a breakout past the neckline - around $18. It looks pretty good for energy. There is some seasonal influence right now.

BUY

Good energy name and she feels the 7.8% dividend is sustainable. Feels natural gas has bottomed and will probably be higher at year from now. Crude has bounced back from $80 to near $90.

HOLD

Has a huge landholding. The problem is, they don't seem to be able to get more of that land in play. There has been interest by Chinese and he expects there will be more. Definitely a potential takeover. He is worried about their payout as it is a significant drain on their cash flow.

HOLD

The estimated takeout target price is $16 and change. Likes this company. If you are going to own one trust, this would be one to own. The one complaint is that the balance sheet is stretched. (See Top Picks.)

COMMENT

Somewhat concerned about their dividend which could be cut. Have a fairly high debt level versus some of their peers and he is monitoring this but for the time being sticking with it. Crescent Point (CPG-T) has a better balance sheet with a slightly smaller yield, which he likes better.

DON'T BUY

About 64% crude. Had a very big spend in Q1 and he wants to see the growth from that. CapX for Q1 was about $660 million, about 40% of the 2012 budget. Assets are really impressive but he hasn't seen a lot of production growth out to them.

COMMENT

Prefers Crescent Point (CPG-T), which has a lot lower debt. Penn West is the largest oil producer in Canada and have some really great assets.

DON'T BUY

Dividend is over 8% and in his view this is a danger signal. He has seen what has happened to commodity prices when the dividend gets too high and you can have a nasty surprise. If you chase an 8% yield, be prepared for disappointment.

COMMENT

High quality intermediate producer and is pretty sure they will not cut their distribution unless crude really plummets.

DON'T BUY

Ranks very well in his fundamental screen in the “dangerous” category and very poorly everywhere else. Looks like it could easily go down to $12.70.

COMMENT

Has a wonderful asset base. Has been busy pointing. Some times when you have too many assets, you are spread too thin. Could be a takeout target. 7.58% yield.

COMMENT

He likes this company. Doesn't own it because they went through a period of rediscovery and he purchased other companies instead. If he were looking for an overall balanced former trust he would pick this, but he suspects his next addition would be more focused on natural gas.

DON'T BUY

Share price should decline in advance of any dividend cut. Not a small company. Runs on a treadmill of replacing production. Last year was not a great year for them. Likes 4 or 5 plays they are in.

HOLD

Good assets but went the wrong way in the 1st quarter. Had a very big capital spend and we need to see some production growth out of that. Trades at a discount to its peers but you have to see them execute.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO)