Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO)

15.69

-0.59 (3.62%)

as of Sep 22, 2026, 7:59:59 pm Market Open.

127 watching

DON'T BUY

Bought for the income. It has been a perennial disappointment. One of the problems is that they have all the land, but not a good strategy for developing it for getting people to farm in. Concerned that with the pressure on oil prices in Alberta that they will be able to hold their payout.

HOLD

Big company with very big assets. Giant production of around 150,000-170,000 barrels a day. Because they are so big, they have to spend a lot of money to make headway. Stock is seriously down with the market and the sector. Their problems in the past year have been that they have been a bit too gassy. Doesn't think it is particularly vulnerable at this level.

WEAK BUY

One of the bigger companies that came put of the income trust group. Generous dividend is covered by cash flow. People look at their properties and they have a very enviable asset base. Good exposure to light oil assets.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 25/11. Down 38.8%.) Holding it because he is a believer in supply/demand fundamentals of energy. Have great properties. They have also repaired their balance sheets.

COMMENT

Looking at this and if he were to add to the current 3 he has, this would be it. The largest producer among the former income trusts it around 172,000 barrels a day. If this is your sole entry into this space he would buy it.

DON'T BUY

This looks a little bit dangerous right now. There was some support in late 2011 and that was taken out this year. There was a failure to hold higher lows. Yield of 7.7%.

HOLD

Have about 6 million acres of land in Western Canada with a lot of potential but they always seem to be a bit slow to get off the ground. Thinks the dividend, with the cut, is reasonably well covered.

WAIT

Had a rally in 2011 to about $30. This was followed by another rally and we are now trying to come back to the bottom and make a double bottom. This could be around $15, which would probably be a buying opportunity.

DON'T BUY

Great, Canadian, mid tier producer but is suffering from all the things in the industry. The amount of oil is being caught up in the differential issue. Natural gas prices are so low it is hard to justify owning anything. It has to be “Best in Class”, almost no debt and, lowest cost producer. Good company but not the best.

TOP PICK

Have a great land position in Western Canada. The problem has been management utilizing that and they have gotten better at it now. They are better now at using partners so don’t have the debt they used to.

COMMENT

If he was going to buy a former income trust that is somewhat active in the oil/gas sector, it would be this one. Price to cash flow ratio based on projected cash flow is one of the lowest. (See Top Picks.)

DON'T BUY

Recently issued a press release in terms of their year end reserves. Looked at operating net backs and the findings/development costs and the recycle ratio of about 1.1X did not make a significant value maker. There are better places to be.

DON'T BUY

Doesn't like their natural gas exposure, which challenges their cash flow. Growth potential in 2012 will be lower than analysts expect. The reason for the drop in the stock price may be that some investors have been taking profits. (See Top Picks.)

DON'T BUY

$105 price of oil that you see in the paper and the price this company is receiving are nowhere near the same amount. Also they have a dividend that is hurting their ability to grow their production. A lot of oil/gas companies have been struggling and this is one of them. Prefers others.

DON'T BUY

A company that is dealing with a transition from being an income trust to being and exploration/development company. Have continued to pay out a very high distribution/dividend. If they really want to go to work on their massive drilling inventory and not have to rely just on strong energy prices, they should reduce the dividend.

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Obsidian Energy (OBE.TO)