NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Only trading at 28x for 2027. Growing visibly in high 20s-low 30s. Only problem is if growth starts to slow. At what point do people jump ship? These are cyclical companies. The difference between being super-successful and not executing well can be by a factor of 10, as that's how exaggerated moves can be.

If demand really slows, look out below. Concerns of over-building in AI, might not all be needed, and we don't know for sure. The people saying that we need all this AI demand are the ones benefitting from the rising stock prices. The average of the 50 analysts who cover it are saying it can grow 27%. Still a good deal if what they're saying is true.

It may appear that Nvidia is investing in hardware ($100 billion in OpenAI), but really they are financing the purchase of their own equipment. The market responded by pushing the stock back to record highs where it remain slightly under that. Will this mean NVDA will break out to new highs or are existing shareholders selling? Take some money off the table. He likes AI for the long term, but the market is ahead of itself now.

The announced today they would invest $100 billion in OpenAI as part of data centre buildout. NVDA will continue to make a fortune with this investment. Is up 37% this year. Don't trade it, own it.

Chip business is cyclical. The downslide can be precipitated by overstocking due to high demand, and that inventory has to be worked through. China has now decided it doesn't need the H20 chip, so all that inventory is now in the supply channel.

When you're paying a high price for these companies, your expectations are for sunny days. But you have to plan for the rainy ones.

Today's sell-off of 2.62% had no reason, given China banning their tech companies from buying NVDA AI chips. However, Chinese sales are not reflected in Nividia's current numbers, so why sell? Again, own it, don't trade it, and buy at $160. NVDA remains the heart of AI.

A solid hold. Demand for their chips is not going anywhere, peers can't catch up and their technology remains advanced. Earnings are following the stock price. Accumulate this carefully on pullbacks, like now. The PE is not low, can be volatile, so don't buy a full position just yet.

Has been down 5 of the last 6 sessions. Is up nearly 56% the past year, though. The PE is not that high as earnings continue to climb.

The poster child. Gone up a lot, and its valuation is probably 40x forward PE. Quite expensive, unless you believe that it can maintain the treadmill of that kind of growth. He's not saying the growth is over, just that maybe the growth slows down from here. Perhaps the valuation has to stay here while earnings catch up, or it has to come down a little bit.

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If the company continues to execute, it could double its $4.4 trillion valuation. Forget the skeptics.

It just reported a top and bottom line beat and reiterated its full-year forecast, but data centre sales came in a little light, so the stock got dinged after hours. Mostly, the stock was up 35% for the year going into the print and it was priced to be perfect. Overall, a good quarter, but didn't address the conundrum that megatech companies are getting the bang from their buck in buying NVDA stuff. China is another issue. Own this, don't trade it.

The AI hype is way overextended, like the dotcom era. NVDA's market cap is bigger than all of France or the UK or Canada. Ridiculous. If you own it, trim and take profits. NVDA is only one component of AI with software being another. Why is NVDA soaring and the other components are lagging? Is a recipe for disaster.

They report later this week. In some ways, they will hit it out of the park, but how much sentiment is built into the stock already? NVDA has had a huge run, doubling since April. He suspects some people are over-invested and few who are under-invested. No, he won't buy it ahead of earnings, unless you're a daytrader looking at options.

Sure, there are concerns including their demand in China, and will the hyperscalers cut back on buying NVDA chips? You can't have gen-AI without NVDA chips. The new NVDA chips allow chatbots to reason--reasoning will be the holy grail of the AI generation. Selling ahead of this week's report is wrong.