NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Today, they reported a healthy top and bottom line beat with a healthy 75% growth in data center and decent guidance this quarter. Shares were up after hours. Demand for their chips is off the charts.

Isn't concerned about the report. He looks 2-3 years out. We know chip demand is already through the roof. What worries him is a company like Meta signing a deal with AMD, an alternative source for chips. NVDA needs to stay ahead in performance and energy consumption. He prefers infrastructure, like TSM.

The noise of the day is probably not related to proposed US tariffs of 15%. There's anxiety over earnings from NVDA this week; last he looked, NVDA was up slightly, while all other tech was down. Tells you that the market's pretty excited about what NVDA might deliver this week.

The CEO is a master at saying the right thing during the earnings call. When you look at the 5-year picture, it's been a category leader. Went sideways in 2024-25, and again after running up from the April 2025 tariff scare. Given everything we know about the capex spend, will the CEO be able to say enough for the stock to get a leg up? If it can't do that for this market, odds are that the S&P 500 goes 5-10% lower rather than continuing the rally.

As important as geopolitics and tariffs are, this is the important event of the week.

It looks good ahead of earnings next week. If they report near expectations in revenues, margins in China and EPS growth, the stock should do fine.

Stock hasn't made anyone any $$ since summer. Circular financing is a concern, as is possible AI bubble (or not) and increasing competition from the likes of GOOG and AMZN. (Investors, rightly, have very painful memories of JDS Uniphase.) What's going to happen on the other side of the mountain beyond this cyclicality? Investors like Burry are betting against it with put options. 

Doubters are way too early. Just expanded a deal with META for millions more. Blackwell sales off the charts. Q3 beat, earnings were up 65%. Earnings report next Wednesday will be a big moment for the market. Big players still want to buy chips from it, not from each other. Excellent risk/reward. 

Where else are you going to find a company growing at 39%, owned this widely, and trading at 24x PE? Crowded trade, but more to go. Making a mistake if you don't own it. Yield is 0.02%.

They announced a deal with Facebook today, but haven't done much lately, only up 2% year to date and 4% over 6 months. The GPU chip remains the beltway chip, so he's looking forward to their report coming up. Is confident about NVDA.

It reports a week from now. The CEO has already telegraphed what he will say, but the market won't let this crack $200 and the report won't change this. NVDA get cheaper with each quarter because they continue to be at the epicentre.

Is up lately and will continue, because money that pulled out of software ($1 trillion) is returning to this name and other megatechs. Nvidia is powering AI, at the center of things.

Not one of the ones spending 100's of billions of $$ in 2026. Instead, will be a beneficiary of that spend. Software system ecosystem is so ingrained, customers are not likely to exit. Cheaper chips may affect margins, but not to a great extent.

Continued strong, global AI infrastructure spending. Valuation remains cheap, as earnings continue to grow much faster than the price. Owns, and continues to add.

A lot of that huge capex by the other Mag 7 will benefit NVDA.

A good name with a straight line of sight to good results. Look at it when it goes on sale.

He has more comfort owning TSM than NVDA. It means he doesn't have to bet on which horse is going to win the race, but owns the racetrack instead. NVDA's valuation is reasonably attractive. On another material pullback would probably do a deep dive on homework, as AI trend will go on for quite a while.

With MU, demand for memory has gone off the charts. Usually extremely cyclical part of the semi chain, but there's so much demand that supply hasn't caught up. A commodity-type company, so he has no interest in it.

The CEO is a rockstar and their gross margins remain huge. Blackwell chips were just unveiled but we haven't seen a Blackwell model come out yet. NVDA will continue its stranglehold and has a lot more pricing power. But watch competition, their margins and see how the next system rolls outl