Nike Inc (NKE)

Has sold shares, and bought Target instead. Concerned about China exposure, and US consumer trends. Current share price is under pressure, which could be a good time to invest. Overall, is a quality company. Would buy ~$90/share. 

One of the most valuable brands in the world. Global giant. About 50% off of 2021 highs. Forward growth expectations compounded over 3 years about 16% in terms of earnings, faster growth than what analysts are projecting. This is predicated on margin improvement. Shift to direct-consumer sales is secular tailwind to gross margins. Lots of free cashflow, buying back stock. 23x, cheaper than historical average of 31x. Yield is 1.7%.

He's looking very closely. Hasn't pulled trigger yet.

The shoe business has become very competitive, and Nike is considered expensive by consumers watching their money. The latest China news is encouraging, though, and historically Nike shares don't stay down for long. After the bell today, PVH reported an ugly forecast which will infect Nike and other peers.

Their weakness reflects the Chinese consumer's day of reckoning over American brands, and the government supporting their domestic brands. Look at Tesla. He doesn't know how Nike gets out of this.

Technicals were already week coming into weak guidance. However, speculators are long LULU and this portends weakness short term.

EPS of 77c beat estimates of 74c; revenue of $12.42B beat estimates by 1%. Nike's better-than-expected fiscal 3Q results, coupled with its push on the AIR platform beyond basketball, could drive more product innovation and boost customer interest and sales. Still, guidance for fiscal 4Q sales to be up just slightly and 1H25 sales to fall by low-single digits amid global economic uncertainty is weaker than expected. Revenue for fiscal 2025 could still rise if momentum inflects and turns positive in 2H. A greater push into wholesale to raise visibility, along with product innovation to support the next three years and around the Paris Olympics, are catalysts for upside. Reported sales grew 0.3%, led by a 3% revenue gain in North America and a 4.5% increase in China. EMEA saw weaker results as increased macro volatility and softer customer demand weighed. We would be quite comfortable continuing to hold. 
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It's too early to say whether this will break out, but she likes it long term. Has a lot of exposure to China and faces more competition than in the past. Not sure if she'd add shares now.

Stock cratered over last 2 years, partly due to slowing sales in China, higher interest rates, and more competition. Remains the largest footwear and sportswear company in the world. Margins are picking up, as more selling through its own channels. This lull is the opportunity to buy an iconic brand with phenomenal profit margins. Should return to double-digit growth next year. 

A great business being ignored by investors. Reinvesting free cashflow in everything they do. The best brand, entrenched. One of the most recognized logos in the world. One 1 major acquisition in last 20 years, Converse, so this has been an organic growth story. Yield is 1.4%.

Investors fear China is on the verge of a recession or downturn, so shun any stock that has business there. Nike does a lot of business there. But one day, this situation will clear up and Nike will come out of this well.

Sold it last year, because the company reduced earnings estimates, but their multiple stayed high amid concerns in China and their direct-to-consumer business. The company has probably cleaned the decks since then, and can get their topline going again. Rate cuts will help. Is a decent entry point now around $100. Nike has lost a little buzz, but will regain it.

Nike reported and disappointed. Shares falling 11% today. She was terrified going into the quarter, which wasn't terrible. Expected flat revenue growth, yes, but profits beat her expectation. But the outlook was not good. She expects they'll eventually reach around 10% growth, but doesn't know when. They have a product cycle in 2024, but that will take time to get into the system. It's dead money for 6 months or more. This remains 27% up from lows. Is taking profits, though is not buying other stocks during this rally. Expectations, especially over margins, were so high going into this report.

He sold it Nov. 1. He bought is out of momentum, not fundamentals. He sold it out of slowing revenue growth. Is sensitive to the wider economy with global exposure like few apparel companies; he doesn't see improvement in the macros for at least six months. Nike is doing the right things, though: $2 billion in cost cuts and their margins are okay. But Nike is saying China, the Middle East and Europe are weak. He likes TJX, Ross Stores, Burlington and Lululemon instead.

He sold Nike last week. It's a turnaround story, and the last quarterly report said that was indeed in place. But he doubts that now based on the earnings call. First, no signs of help from China (a big customer), but also softening demand in North America. It's dead money for at least months and has to show at least two good quarters to see a lift.