Nike Inc (NKE)

Stock cratered over last 2 years, partly due to slowing sales in China, higher interest rates, and more competition. Remains the largest footwear and sportswear company in the world. Margins are picking up, as more selling through its own channels. This lull is the opportunity to buy an iconic brand with phenomenal profit margins. Should return to double-digit growth next year. 

A great business being ignored by investors. Reinvesting free cashflow in everything they do. The best brand, entrenched. One of the most recognized logos in the world. One 1 major acquisition in last 20 years, Converse, so this has been an organic growth story. Yield is 1.4%.

Investors fear China is on the verge of a recession or downturn, so shun any stock that has business there. Nike does a lot of business there. But one day, this situation will clear up and Nike will come out of this well.

Sold it last year, because the company reduced earnings estimates, but their multiple stayed high amid concerns in China and their direct-to-consumer business. The company has probably cleaned the decks since then, and can get their topline going again. Rate cuts will help. Is a decent entry point now around $100. Nike has lost a little buzz, but will regain it.

Nike reported and disappointed. Shares falling 11% today. She was terrified going into the quarter, which wasn't terrible. Expected flat revenue growth, yes, but profits beat her expectation. But the outlook was not good. She expects they'll eventually reach around 10% growth, but doesn't know when. They have a product cycle in 2024, but that will take time to get into the system. It's dead money for 6 months or more. This remains 27% up from lows. Is taking profits, though is not buying other stocks during this rally. Expectations, especially over margins, were so high going into this report.

He sold it Nov. 1. He bought is out of momentum, not fundamentals. He sold it out of slowing revenue growth. Is sensitive to the wider economy with global exposure like few apparel companies; he doesn't see improvement in the macros for at least six months. Nike is doing the right things, though: $2 billion in cost cuts and their margins are okay. But Nike is saying China, the Middle East and Europe are weak. He likes TJX, Ross Stores, Burlington and Lululemon instead.

He sold Nike last week. It's a turnaround story, and the last quarterly report said that was indeed in place. But he doubts that now based on the earnings call. First, no signs of help from China (a big customer), but also softening demand in North America. It's dead money for at least months and has to show at least two good quarters to see a lift.

Shares are up 14% in the past month. They report this week. See what they say about their business in China, which accounts for a serious part of their business and relies on China for producing their shoes. He likes Nike ahead of earnings.

They report Thursday. The street has turned bearish on this name after a few negative quarters. He expects analyst upgrades to come. Buy shares both before and after the report.

Scores well on the fundamental metrics. It's enjoyed recent momentum, but that needs to be sustained for many months. They did that to start the year, but it was a false start when it declined in the middle of the year into the fall. Earnings are next week. What's happening with China's recovery? That's important.

He bought it after its last earnings report. It was in a major downtrend, then reported a good quarter. It's up 25% in 3 months and traded at an expensive 31x PE. But the momentum and sentiment is positive. He's not looking so much at China's recovery being a factory, but rather whether inventory and pricing are under control in the U.S. 

A good company with a solid history. Their sales are holding up in China.

China is a big customer, and shares are enjoying a bounce because Biden and Xi are meeting. Investors are helpful of an advance in US-China relations.

They've had operational and inventory issues, but have sold them. They just beat their numbers, so there's less product discounting. Are in better shape. An incredible brand.

Has good sentiment above $100. Expects a good holiday season for them.