MDA Space Ltd. (MDA.TO)

He lightened up earlier this year, but is now coming back to it. Lost EchoStar contract. Latest rumour is that Globalstar contract is also at risk. That's 2 x $2B contracts, massive. Market's assuming the worst right now.

He looks at the other side. All the telcos are now offering dirct-to-cell satellite, a growth area. More infrastructure spending was detailed in the recent federal budget. A Canadian-domiciled company. Pretty good backlog. He bought some this morning, legging into his positions.

Bought it on the dip of the lost EchoStar contract. Well-positioned to capitalize on the $1.5T global space economy. Two aspects:  telecommunications/mobility and defense. Both segments are growing, though defense may get a boost with more federal funding. 

Order book has compounded at 54% annually since 2020. Management sees 25-30% revenue growth for the next few years. Fairly undemanding multiple of ~12x EV:EBITDA. No dividend.

(Note the short timeframe.)  His team are fairly active managers. When it lost EchoStar contract, he cut the position in half. Still amazing opportunities ahead. Nothing wrong with the company.

On his watchlist. Chart shows a cup formation with a handle. Perfect. Then it went parabolic. Stock's gapped down. He thinks it'll pull back to old support near $30.

In early stages of space economy. MDA's products will be in demand for a long time. EchoStar news was a surprise, yet MDA continues to have a large backlog. Pulled back to 200-day MA, which it's done many times over last year and rallied off it. Opportunities are no less than they were. He'd buy here.

Exited a bit higher than today because valuation seemed frothy. He'd likely look at it again if price dropped into the $20s with a lower valuation. Likes the satellite space quite a bit.

Great Canadian company, likes it. Since the price drop due to cancelled contract, he's been doing more work on it. Great order backlog. It'll grow with the amount of money going into low earth orbit satellites and defense. Good time to pick up. Good way to play AI through space.

Big hit on EchoStar, but it had nothing to do with MDA and everything to do with EchoStar changing its business. Reaction was far overdone.

Though these contracts don't come around every day, the capacity is there. Just a matter of time before that capacity gets filled up. Great job on all other contracts. Revenue visibility is quite intense from the big backlog.

Intriguing. Likes business fundamentals. Space economy has a $1.5T addressable market. Has a $4.8B backlog, though did lose the EchoStar contract. Top-tier customers. NATO allies significantly upping defense spending. 

His team is assessing risk/reward. Watching, hasn't pulled trigger. Stay tuned.

They lost a big contract last week, but this is an isolated incident (to be confirmed). The company they lost the contact to had lost their spectrum to SpaceX over regulatory reasons. The rest of MDA's business is intact and should not be negatively impacted. The huge backlog from other clients should make up the lost capacity, though may see less business from the U.S. MDA should be fine going forward.

They lost the Echo Star contract and shares plunged 25%. Was trading at 39x PE and now at 33x. Is cheap now and will recover their growth.

One of the themes he's focused on is space, a long-term secular trend. Space economy is in very early stages, and will go on for a long time. This one is fully exposed to that economy. Three basic verticals:  robotics and space operations, low-orbiting satellite systems for Wi-Fi via satellite (best-known right now, huge backlog), geo-intelligence (defense). 

Leader in the group. Clean balance sheet. Interesting strategic acquisitions. Growth stock. No dividend.

The costs of space are coming way down and MDA is getting more and bigger contracts for more components. The backlog continues to grow. It executes well on its numbers. Space is an area to grow. It expands as prices come down which expands the whole market.      Buy 6 Hold 1 Sell 0

Growth is there, 3 big contracts (1 Canadian, 2 US). Bright future, but it's priced in. If it's 5% of your portfolio, hold on and enjoy the ride. If you're way overweight, definitely trim some.

Despite growth profile, people were worried about its debt. Then it demonstrated its cost-saving abilities to one company and just took off. No longer undiscovered.