MDA Space Ltd. (MDA.TO)

A struggle. He owned his twice this year. Hard to own. Very volatile this year. The current collapse concerns him. It took Feb-June to bottom out, so it may take several months for this to bottom out. The chart shows a Triple Waterfall, so a third down leg could lie ahead. He wouldn't return to this until it bottoms out and shows relative strength.

EPS of 35c beat estimates of 34c; revenue of $409.8M beat estimates of $403.2M. EBITDA of $82.8M beat estimates by 6%. Guidance was affirmed. EBITDA margin rose 20.2%, 0.9 points above estimates. Backlog was $4.39B, lower than estimates ($5.13B). Revenue rose 45% from last year. This was a good quarter and the stock has responded, but investors are still concerned about potential contract losses. We would be fine buying a partial position today. 
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Thank goodness they didn't buy it, but still on his aggressive watchlist. Craig (the fundamental guy) likes it, though it does have volatility. If it manages to find support right where it is now, they'd get serious on it. It has to stop going down and base. "Up is good, down is bad." 

Don't buy here, but don't sell either until it breaks. If it breaks $20, probably time to get out. Yes, you could use it for tax-loss selling and wait the 30 days imposed by CRA, as it may not move during that time (hard to say).

There was excitement over defense spending, given announcements from Trump and NATO. But MDA's space business is longer-term and higher-risk. Their technology is satisfactory and will win future contracts. If you're down, hold. But MDA depends on government contracts, which is risky.

Speculation that may also lose the Globalstar contract. Based on stock's reaction, a big surprise for the street. Not a lot of visibility on its outlook. Don't step in until it next reports (a couple of weeks), and see if there's more clarity on future prospects.

He lightened up earlier this year, but is now coming back to it. Lost EchoStar contract. Latest rumour is that Globalstar contract is also at risk. That's 2 x $2B contracts, massive. Market's assuming the worst right now.

He looks at the other side. All the telcos are now offering dirct-to-cell satellite, a growth area. More infrastructure spending was detailed in the recent federal budget. A Canadian-domiciled company. Pretty good backlog. He bought some this morning, legging into his positions.

Bought it on the dip of the lost EchoStar contract. Well-positioned to capitalize on the $1.5T global space economy. Two aspects:  telecommunications/mobility and defense. Both segments are growing, though defense may get a boost with more federal funding. 

Order book has compounded at 54% annually since 2020. Management sees 25-30% revenue growth for the next few years. Fairly undemanding multiple of ~12x EV:EBITDA. No dividend.

(Note the short timeframe.)  His team are fairly active managers. When it lost EchoStar contract, he cut the position in half. Still amazing opportunities ahead. Nothing wrong with the company.

On his watchlist. Chart shows a cup formation with a handle. Perfect. Then it went parabolic. Stock's gapped down. He thinks it'll pull back to old support near $30.

In early stages of space economy. MDA's products will be in demand for a long time. EchoStar news was a surprise, yet MDA continues to have a large backlog. Pulled back to 200-day MA, which it's done many times over last year and rallied off it. Opportunities are no less than they were. He'd buy here.

Exited a bit higher than today because valuation seemed frothy. He'd likely look at it again if price dropped into the $20s with a lower valuation. Likes the satellite space quite a bit.

Great Canadian company, likes it. Since the price drop due to cancelled contract, he's been doing more work on it. Great order backlog. It'll grow with the amount of money going into low earth orbit satellites and defense. Good time to pick up. Good way to play AI through space.

Big hit on EchoStar, but it had nothing to do with MDA and everything to do with EchoStar changing its business. Reaction was far overdone.

Though these contracts don't come around every day, the capacity is there. Just a matter of time before that capacity gets filled up. Great job on all other contracts. Revenue visibility is quite intense from the big backlog.

Intriguing. Likes business fundamentals. Space economy has a $1.5T addressable market. Has a $4.8B backlog, though did lose the EchoStar contract. Top-tier customers. NATO allies significantly upping defense spending. 

His team is assessing risk/reward. Watching, hasn't pulled trigger. Stay tuned.

They lost a big contract last week, but this is an isolated incident (to be confirmed). The company they lost the contact to had lost their spectrum to SpaceX over regulatory reasons. The rest of MDA's business is intact and should not be negatively impacted. The huge backlog from other clients should make up the lost capacity, though may see less business from the U.S. MDA should be fine going forward.