MDA Space Ltd.MDA.TOTOP PICKAug 20, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 11, 2026. Market Open.
Volatile because it's newsy, a mid-cap name, and only popped on investors' radar in the last 18 months. Secular outlook is excellent. Should benefit from ongoing buildout in military spending domestically. Acquisition will position them well to bid on classified contracts in US. Mostly a domestic play. Backlog is large and growing.
New CEO is trying to pivot more to the defense side, so give that time. A great pivot if they can pull it off. Challenge is that the pivot's required due to a lot of deteriorating trends under the hood. Has potential, but not a great performer over the long term.
Could be a value trap. Better opportunities elsewhere.
Opportunities should extend to at least the end of the decade. New funding going toward Canadarm. Big Arctic contract announced this week benefiting MDA and TSAT. Expanding production capacity, making acquisitions. Likely to benefit from Canada's big step up in military spending. Potential pipeline of $40B on low-orbit satellites.
Huge run, drawdown is partially sentiment driven. Balance sheet still in pretty good shape. Trading ~24x PE for 2028, growing 16%. Recent acquisitions look pretty accretive. Another $1B worth of contracts. Space names have really come down the last little while. An important company to own in Canada's space complex, amid the push to build up the military sector.
Aerospace is a hot industry given the war, the Pentagon and Spacex. MDA is volatile, but what are the potential earnings, which are supposed to be $1.80 EPS in 2027, then jump to $2.08 in 2028, or 10% growth. But MDA trades at 30-50x PE. Volatile stocks like this that double or triple, you must sell half your shares.
One of the themes he's focused on is space, a long-term secular trend. Space economy is in very early stages, and will go on for a long time. This one is fully exposed to that economy. Three basic verticals: robotics and space operations, low-orbiting satellite systems for Wi-Fi via satellite (best-known right now, huge backlog), geo-intelligence (defense).
(Analysts’ price target is $54.50)Leader in the group. Clean balance sheet. Interesting strategic acquisitions. Growth stock. No dividend.