President & CEO, Bedford Park Capital at Bedford Park Capital
Member since: Jan '25 · 28 Opinions
That, combined with some really solid earnings from the banks, is giving everybody some optimism.
We happened to get that last year. When we're talking about markets, we need to specify whether we're talking about Canada or US, large caps or small. Lots of attention right now on valuations for US mega-caps, and they are quite high. If you look at the spread between Canadian and US equities, and the spread between small caps and large caps, investors will find that there are still tremendous opportunities in the Canadian market specifically.
We're trading at a huge discount to the US, especially in the small- and mid-caps. He's not finding growth stocks at distressed multiples of 5x PE as he was a year ago, as those same stocks are now 8-10x PE. But if you're buying a company growing 30% a year, at 8-10x earnings, that's a very attractive setup. So he's still quite constructive.
Canada should trade at a discount. We're a smaller market, our companies are smaller, and there are fewer eyeballs on us. But in some case we're seeing a 50% discount in valuation multiples compared to the US. That's even more pronounced when we get down to the small- and mid-caps, as there's just less investor attention down there.
For someone like him, who likes to go hunting in that sector of the market, he's still finding very attractive opportunities.
Small-cap energy services. Consistent operating results. Technology reduces labour requirements and improves worker safety. Unique recurring revenue component, which may start showing up Q1 or Q2. Small position. If you own, hold; if not, fine to buy here.
Very high margins, using nat gas instead of diesel for generators in its power division. Power division is growing quickly. Chart is beautiful, more room to run. Anticipates a $4-5 stock.
Industrial stocks have come off on tariff, and other, fears. Very good ROE profile. Excellent earnings growth, with analysts projecting ~30% earnings growth a year for next 3 years. Quarters can be spotty due to lag time for project approval, so you have to own it for a while. At 9x forward PE, substantial discount to peers.
Small position for him. If it continues to perform, he'll continue to add.
Disappointing. Slowdown in farm division last year, and management anticipates continued challenges. Management keeps cutting guidance, so its credibility has taken a hit. Better use for capital elsewhere over the next year or so.
Towers with cameras for security surveillance. Really ramped up production. Management is executing quite well. Market's excited, great momentum, may have room to go.
Sold early, so you may not want his opinion on this one ;) Now valuation compared to its financial profile is keeping him out. If you're comfortable with the valuation, you could continue to hold.
Incredible job scaling the business. Close to 500 franchises in development, which should take about 3-5 years. About $2-2.5M in revenue per quarter, anticipates a ramp up to ~$4M next year. Lots of faith in CEO -- a passionate and excellent entrepreneur, who's really good at identifying concepts early, buying them cheaply, and building them out.
Valuation not cheap, and that's keeping him out. If you can be patient, you'll be fine with current valuation. But it's already done incredibly well, so may need to base while it backfills the valuation.
Shares financial characteristics with CSU. In contrast to CSU, does a smaller number of larger acquisitions. Sold off on news of the (excellent) CEO temporarily stepping down, should be back mid-February. A short-term issue, so buy here, tuck it away, be happy down the road.
Ties to Brookfield, high quality. From market darling to selloff on softer financials. Just below his ideal growth profile, and just above ideal valuation. Good company, well managed, but not his preference in non-bank financial sector.
See his Top Picks.
Previous business structure not very well integrated. New CEO very impressive. Still cheap, and he's looking at it.
Traditionally a security business, then morphed into higher-end security like bodyguards, and now into mobile towers for security similar to ZDC. Chart's ticked up. Financials not good enough for him to own right now.
Probably his worst pick ever on the show :( Big disappointment. Lost biggest customer, which made up ~60% of revenue, and he'd underestimated the likelihood of that happening. Company sold at a good price to FISV.
Didn't meet his expectations last year. Revenue growth was softer. Company exited higher-risk jurisdictions to focus on more stable areas. Management's doing well, financials are good. Watching to see how well it penetrates US market. Still likes it.