MDA Space Ltd. (MDA.TO)

Space sector is capital intensive, not many profitable companies. Space costs have really come down. Profitable, high-quality balance sheet. At 30x PE, not cheap but not expensive at all.

Recent earnings looked pretty good, $4B backlog and $40B pipeline. Not worried about cold shoulder from US, as international demand is there with not many competitors. Will work out for a 3-5 year time horizon.

Still likes it. Brutal year last year. Well positioned. Should get more contracts from Canadian fiscal spending as well as from international partners.

Makes satellites. Leading space tech company, positioned to capitalize on expanding global space economy. Defense plus next-gen telecom satellite applications. Aurora satellite has competitive edge with cost-efficiency and high production volume. Large order backlog. 

Q4 reports next week, and he expects good results and steady stream of new contract announcements. No dividend.

A great play on higher defence spending. Canadian defence stocks are rare. But the chart is rocky. Likes it. An obvious choice in defence.

Nice run on defense announcements. Pure play on growth in space. Loss of EchoStar contract put question marks on its backlog. It's 31% in the US, so what happens if CUSMA doesn't end well?

He models 14% EPS growth, trading ~21x PE. Given defense spending, not a bad buy here.

Yes, we think MDA offers good potential and it also has scarcity value and is in a sector with high barriers to entry.
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A small cap, and small caps are coming into vogue right now. Up 35% in the last year. Robotics, satellite systems, and geo-intelligence technology to the space industry. Elon Musk wanting to put up more satellites falls into this company's bailiwick. Aerospace is having its time to shine. Worth owning.

He owns HEI and CAE instead.

Lots of volatility. Part of the Golden Dome -- no $$ amount associated with that, but that they're part of it is a good endorsement. Needs to diversify its client base. Business is doing well, generates cashflow. A mission-critical company in Canada, with opportunities in Europe. Exposed to the right themes of defense and national security. A good hold for the next several years.

(Note the short-ish timeframe.)  Unfortunate news with losing EchoStar contract, and worry on Globalstar contract (this one has abated). Continues to add new projects and new contracts.

He got stopped out on the initial drop. Waiting for consolidation after tax-loss selling, and it's approaching a point for re-entry.

Excitement in the space race again. Price spike fueled by the contract backlog and sector hype. Crash came from timing risk, debt worries, and valuation reality check. Fundamentals remain solid. Next leg depends on almost-flawless execution. Margins are healthy. Long-term setup looks constructive, but has to deliver.

Wait to see execution on backlog before considering a position.

Technically failed after it hit $40, so he moved to the sidelines. Other things to do right now.

(Note the short timeframe.)  Bad luck this year. When it lost that EchoStar contract it broke technical levels, and he got stopped out. Still really likes the business, which will be significantly bigger in 10 years. He watches it very closely for a chance to get back in.

Their last numbers beat the street. There have been delays with a project, but overall MDA will do well. They have a strong backlog. Trades at 13x PE 2026, not expensive. It helps that around the world, countries are thinking of defense. MDA executes well. If Global Star overcomes its delay, MDA could grow their top and bottom lines.

MDA got caught up in the speculative frenzy over and shares have returned to Earth. But at this valuation it looks interesting. Doesn't know the company fundamentals, and doesn't follow it. Will be volatile when the space sector gets hot and not.