MDA Space Ltd.MDA.TOTOP PICKOct 24, 2025Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 04, 2026. Market Open.
Huge run, drawdown is partially sentiment driven. Balance sheet still in pretty good shape. Trading ~24x PE for 2028, growing 16%. Recent acquisitions look pretty accretive. Another $1B worth of contracts. Space names have really come down the last little while. An important company to own in Canada's space complex, amid the push to build up the military sector.
Aerospace is a hot industry given the war, the Pentagon and Spacex. MDA is volatile, but what are the potential earnings, which are supposed to be $1.80 EPS in 2027, then jump to $2.08 in 2028, or 10% growth. But MDA trades at 30-50x PE. Volatile stocks like this that double or triple, you must sell half your shares.
Stronger-than-expected sales and operating profit, reticent to increase guidance. Space economy is big and growing secularly. Cranked up low-orbit satellite production last year, along with product innovation. Some concern on deal with Globalstar, but doesn't look as though it will have to write down the contract.
Bought it on the dip of the lost EchoStar contract. Well-positioned to capitalize on the $1.5T global space economy. Two aspects: telecommunications/mobility and defense. Both segments are growing, though defense may get a boost with more federal funding.
(Analysts’ price target is $43.56)Order book has compounded at 54% annually since 2020. Management sees 25-30% revenue growth for the next few years. Fairly undemanding multiple of ~12x EV:EBITDA. No dividend.