Stockchase Opinions

The Weekly Buzzing Stocks by Billy KawasakiEli Lilly & Co.LLYTOP PICKOct 03, 2024

Eli Lilly and Company discovers, develops, and markets human pharmaceuticals worldwide. It offers Basaglar, Humalog, Humalog Mix 75/25, Humalog U-100, Humalog U-200, Humalog Mix 50/50, insulin lispro, insulin lispro protamine, insulin lispro mix 75/25, Humulin, Humulin 70/30, Humulin N, Humulin R, and Humulin U-500 for diabetes; and Jardiance, Trajenta, and Trulicity for type 2 diabetes. The company provides Alimta for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and malignant pleural mesothelioma; Cyramza for metastatic gastric cancer, gastro-esophageal junction adenocarcinoma, metastatic NSCLC, metastatic colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma; Erbitux for colorectal cancers, and various head and neck cancers; Retevmo for metastatic NSCLC, medullary thyroid cancer, and thyroid cancer; Tyvyt for relapsed or refractory classic Hodgkin's lymph and non-squamous NSCLC; and Verzenio for HR+, HER2- metastatic breast cancer, node positive, and early breast cancer. It offers Olumiant for rheumatoid arthritis; and Taltz for plaque psoriasis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and non-radiographic axial spondylarthritis. The company offers Cymbalta for depressive disorder, diabetic peripheral neuropathic pain, generalized anxiety disorder, fibromyalgia, and chronic musculoskeletal pain; Emgality for migraine prevention and episodic cluster headache; and Zyprexa for schizophrenia, bipolar I disorder, and bipolar maintenance. Its Bamlanivimab and etesevimab, and Bebtelovimab for COVID-19; Cialis for erectile dysfunction and benign prostatic hyperplasia; and Forteo for osteoporosis. The company has collaborations with Incyte Corporation; Boehringer Ingelheim Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; AbCellera Biologics Inc.; Junshi Biosciences; Regor Therapeutics Group; Lycia Therapeutics, Inc.; Kumquat Biosciences Inc.; Entos Pharmaceuticals Inc.; and Foghorn Therapeutics Inc. Eli Lilly and Company was founded in 1876 and is headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. Social media mentions are up 3000% in the past 24h. 

$884.89

Stock price when the opinion was issued

$1148.00

As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.

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BUY

Has owned a long time in the growth fund. It is a leader in GLP 1. Every year the weight loss drugs seem to be able to treat another condition so it is a bit of a miracle drug. Is still early for these drugs. It is expensive so if you want something else you could try Thermo Fisher for broad exposure. The health care sector still has an overhang from Covid and the US government has pulled back on spending.

HOLD

His preference in the space.

WATCH
NVO vs. LLY

NVO chart's under pressure. Where are we in the saturation cycle for GLP-1 penetration? Also, what will the price/volume dynamics be, since NVO kicked off a price war?

LLY has the better position in terms of branded drugs. Hasn't pulled the trigger on either.

BUY

He likes their just-announced purchase of Centessa, which makes drugs to tackle narcolepsy, drug/alcohol addiction and mood disorders.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 19/25, Up 7%)

What we're seeing now are expectations settling after a very strong runup. Still at the centre of the biggest shift in healthcare. Keeps expanding its opportunities and taking market share.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 17/25, Up 19%)

Winning the weight-loss drug war. Active pipeline.

WEAK BUY

Likes pharma and has long owned several such stocks. Between LLY and NVO, their competitor, it is a zero-sum race that LLY is winning in the weight-loss drugs. LLY has always been expensive. He likes Amgen for its GLP-1 drug (still pending approval).

BUY

They beat earnings and shares jumped over 10% today. They have a partnership with Nvidia to treat hard-to-defeat diseases. With this firepower, they will succeed.

COMMENT

 It reports Wednesday. What drives this stock are new drug trials of its weight-loss drug. If they announce new data, shares could move.

DON'T BUY

The street is passing on this because it has a much higher PE now, making it too risky.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
LLY vs. NVO

Breaking out to new highs. Bit more diversified than NVO, and a bit more stable. Supposed to come out with pill form for weight loss sometime this year. Well above 200-day MA, which is starting to push higher. Prefers this name.

NVO is more focused on 2 areas:  diabetes and weight loss. Recently announced pill version for weight loss, and that's very positive. Valuation's quite cheap. Competitive pricing, regulatory scrutiny. Trades at 17x PE, but earnings growth forecast looks cloudy for next couple of years. Might be building a base, but still a tad below 200-day MA.

Both have signed agreement with US government for expansion in Medicare, albeit with lower pricing.

HOLD

Weight-loss space is currently a battle between NVO and LLY, though other competitors will arrive on the scene in the next 5-10 years. LLY secured way more capacity than NVO did. LLY executed better, and revenue and sales should grow much faster. 

Huge drop in NVO makes it more interesting, but LLY still has the better growth outlook (including the pill version when it hits the market later this year).

TOP PICK

Last 3 months have started to see some improvement in the sector, and almost immediately this name went to a new high. Quickly got extended, and then pulled back to where it broke out. Going through transformation. Massive growth in GLP-1 drugs, which has shifted the company from a boring, steady income earner to a growth stock.

Technically, has broken out of a very nice base. Clearly, a leader in the pharma sector. Sees multiple expansion and earnings growth. Hard to imagine that growth in weight-loss drugs will slow if they can move from injection to oral pill. Poster child for what to own in healthcare. Yield is 0.65%.

(Analysts’ price target is $1110.57)
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 19/25, Up 29%)

(Note the short timeframe.)  Hitting all-time highs. At her original target price, which she's now re-evaluating. Potential of 50% upside from here. Strongest growth story in the healthcare space. Weight-loss and diabetes demand is incredible. Exciting runway. She may take some money off the table here, but still likes it.

TOP PICK

Very resilient name, especially compared to peers such as NVO. Global pharma leader -- obesity, diabetes, oncology, neuroscience. Strong pipeline. Strong, expanding global presence. Earnings growth expected to be ~20% going forward. Pricing agreement with Trump administration is a big tailwind. Though some obesity prices are lower because of that, in exchange they get expanded coverage in Medicare. 

Bit overbought at this point, so he'd probably wait for some softness before adding. Long-term secular tailwinds:  aging demographics, rising healthcare spending globally, advances in biotechnology. Yield is 0.58%.

(Analysts’ price target is $998.85)