Eli Lilly & Co.LLYWAITSep 02, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Sep 03, 2026. Market Open.
Pharma and biotech are seeing better leadership in the market. Partly because these sectors are going to be big implementers of AI, and the sector was out of favour for quite some time. They tend to be pretty big cash generators.
He's a big fan of focusing on the leaders in a sector -- easier time hiring best employees and raising capital. He'd much prefer this over PFE. Lots of revenue upside. GLP-1 market will continue to grow, as these drugs help with all kinds of issues.
Broad pipeline, but its leadership in GLP-1 is what's really pushing the stock. New catalyst is approval for oral pill. Winning battle against NVO. Sees ~25% earnings growth rate over next several years.
Broken out to a new space on the charts. He looks to buy on dips if possible. Yield is 0.57%.
Different businesses. LLY is a big play in GLP-1 drugs. How will pills effect the injections business? LLY has done a good job of navigating these new pills. GS enjoys increased stock market and IPO businesses. He prefers LLY, which is tied to a secular growth trend, but GS' good times in capturing revenue in this cycle will end.
Clear leader in diabetes and weight loss. Other players are coming in, but this name is ahead of the curve. Very strong earnings growth over next few years (50% for 2026, 22% for 2027, 17% for 2028). Reliable aspects of a pharmaceutical healthcare name, plus very strong earnings growth.
RSI is 70, so wait for a bit of a pullback.
Largest pharma company in the US, and possibly the world. Breaking out to fresh all-time highs. Leading GLP-1 drugs. 150-year history of healthcare innovation.
Obesity + diabetes comprise ~55% of revenues, and growing fast. Also into oncology, immunology, neuroscience, and more. Well-insulated from patent cliffs. 80% of marketed drugs are "biologic", which stand up better to generic competition. Prolific FCF. M&A frenzy this year on top of pretty robust R&D. Yield is 0.61% (growing 15% compound pace over last 5 years, should continue).
Has owned a long time in the growth fund. It is a leader in GLP 1. Every year the weight loss drugs seem to be able to treat another condition so it is a bit of a miracle drug. Is still early for these drugs. It is expensive so if you want something else you could try Thermo Fisher for broad exposure. The health care sector still has an overhang from Covid and the US government has pulled back on spending.
Obesity is the main push, not much else in the pipeline. Not a particularly interesting buying opportunity, wait for it to get significantly cheaper. Still believes in the fundamental story. Monthly expense can be afforded by only a small cohort, and that's reaching saturation. Needs government and big insurance to absorb the cost as good for society.
Though beating and raising, the next 3 years won't see the returns you saw over the last few years.