Goldman Sachs (GS)

With deregulation in the US he thinks this is a very interesting play. It has come back after Trump got in. Now is the time to get back in. He is continuing to buy on pullbacks. He thinks Trump is going to be able to deregulate the financial industry. (Analysts’ target: $244.04).

You’re not going to get the same type of upside that it had from $150 to the current price. But they are going to make hay while the sun is shining. If Donald Trump has his way, this could be 3 or 4 pretty good years for US financials. (He has a better idea for a Canadian financial.) (See Top Picks.)

They learned to live with regulation and did it reasonably well. They did well under that cloud and now all of a sudden regulation is going to lessen. The IPO and M&A markets should be more robust. (Analysts’ Target $230.08).

MET-N vs. PRU-N. They will get a nice tailwind from a steeper rate curve. He prefers MS-N or GS-N to these two.

One of those companies that will benefit from the financial sector’s push back on the regulatory pressure. They have the highest revenue per employee of all the similar brokers.

He would convert Canadian dollars today. He would do it because of our trade deficit. If you buy in the US then you need to deploy your Canadian dollars now. GS-N just hit EBV -2. $160 is his model price. All the financials have rallied, anticipating a rise in rates. The fundamentals are lagging, but with higher rates you should get higher earnings.

A traditional investment bank, arguably one of the best if not the best. Their business has completely downscaled over the years, with a whole series of initiatives out of the US, to reduce risks. Their revenue, for a large part, comes through capital markets and transaction business, as well as a stable asset management business. A great company, however a very hard stock to necessarily own, because you have all the capital markets uncertainty, pressure on the banks. They are probably the poster boy, whether right or wrong, for public angst. This is something you have to trade a little, rather than being a long-term hold.

The yield is not great – 1.8%. Regional banks have more yield. As a business it has struggled this year, down about 8-9%. You are betting on M&A activity.

This has suffered along with all the global investment banks. They don’t have any serious regulatory issues, but are all suffering from low interest rates as well as regulatory oversight issues, having to pull capital out of trading businesses. The great news is that while everybody else is reducing exposure to trading businesses, this bank is not. There is going to be, and already is, a lot less competition in those trading businesses that they run so well and so shrewdly. Trading at about 10X earnings, a slight discount to tangible BV. Dividend yield of 1.6%.

(A Top Pick July 9/15. Down 21.01%.) He was early on US financials and it is still a relatively small weight for him. At this time, he would prefer to focus on the commercial banks and some of the asset managers. He got Stopped out of this.

(A Top Pick July 9/15. Down 27.52%.) This company is being regulated into the ground, probably for good reasons, but it has changed their business model making it harder for them to generate outsized profits. He got stopped out.

(A Top Pick March 24/15. Down 18.22%.) This is a wonderful bank. The stock has been unduly hit. Over the last 4 months everybody was saying the IPO market was done and there are no more initial public offerings and the company can’t make any money. Quietly, without people noticing, the bond market has been running at a record pace for the last 2 months, and this company is making money on that. Trading at 8X BV and the free cash flow is strong. Dividend yield of 1.69%.

(A Top Pick Dec 22/15. Down 18.41%.) He was hoping that financials moved the market. When there were all those triple digit days back in December, that is usually a point where it is going to go up or come down. In this case the market came down. Financials led the way down. This is no longer a trade. It is probably something you could own here as it is it at very attractive level. No rush to get into this.

He looks at the markets in the US, and as the banks go, so do they. They have been stuck in a range for a long time. It is stuck between a couple of moving averages, but getting closer to the lower end. Expects to see it above $200 early in the new year.

There no clarity in how they treat derivatives on the balance sheet. The worry is always who is on the other side of the derivative transaction. All the investment banks are in the process of trying to clean up their accounting of these. He prefers MS-N.