Goldman Sachs (GS)

Just reported record earnings and profits. They have a strong capital management team. We have gone through 8 years of a financial mania, conglomeration and low interest rates. At some point that is going to reverse itself and this leading investment bank is going to help the companies get themselves out of trouble that they have put themselves in. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts’ price target is $241.50.)

This had a bad quarter and the stock fell 5%-6%. If anybody can make money in the financial world, these guys do it all the time. Balance sheet is twice as strong as it was at the time of the financial crisis. This is a bank that has the least exposure and problems with narrowing credit spreads. It has the best return on equity and the best growth opportunities. Trading at 11X earnings and has good growth prospects. Dividend yield of 1.3%. (Analysts’ price target is $250.00.)

This has been hit hard recently and he is taking advantage of this being down a good 14% from its 52-week high. Feels it is the strongest Dow stock today. There is the promise of financial services as interest rates move up. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts’ price target is $250.)

Financials got rushed. Trading volume this quarter has been lack luster in this sector. Interest rates continue to dip lower. We have not yet had a reduction in regulation as expected after Trump’s election.

He likes a lot of these investment banks and a lot of the US financials. When you own a name like this, you are getting some US institutional and banking business. It is very highly levered to yields moving higher. This looks like it is bouncing off the 200-day moving average. A lot of the US financials have come down and are starting to look very, very attractive.

In their last quarter, they had some trouble with their fixed income and currency side, and he views that as a “one off”. The stock was down 5%. With the proposed US deregulations and tax reform, that would be even more positive for them. There is lots of M&A going on. This is trading at 12X earnings, compared to the market which is at 17X. Feels they will generate growth of 12% for the next 3 years. Dividend yield of 1.4%. (Analysts’ price target is $251.)

(A Top Pick March 2/16. Up 30.36%.) There is still more to go on this. There is a dearth of US companies right now. The number of listed US companies is shrinking year by year for the last 10 years. Expects that this is going to go up towards its high of the year of about $250.

With deregulation in the US he thinks this is a very interesting play. It has come back after Trump got in. Now is the time to get back in. He is continuing to buy on pullbacks. He thinks Trump is going to be able to deregulate the financial industry. (Analysts’ target: $244.04).

You’re not going to get the same type of upside that it had from $150 to the current price. But they are going to make hay while the sun is shining. If Donald Trump has his way, this could be 3 or 4 pretty good years for US financials. (He has a better idea for a Canadian financial.) (See Top Picks.)

They learned to live with regulation and did it reasonably well. They did well under that cloud and now all of a sudden regulation is going to lessen. The IPO and M&A markets should be more robust. (Analysts’ Target $230.08).

MET-N vs. PRU-N. They will get a nice tailwind from a steeper rate curve. He prefers MS-N or GS-N to these two.

One of those companies that will benefit from the financial sector’s push back on the regulatory pressure. They have the highest revenue per employee of all the similar brokers.

He would convert Canadian dollars today. He would do it because of our trade deficit. If you buy in the US then you need to deploy your Canadian dollars now. GS-N just hit EBV -2. $160 is his model price. All the financials have rallied, anticipating a rise in rates. The fundamentals are lagging, but with higher rates you should get higher earnings.

A traditional investment bank, arguably one of the best if not the best. Their business has completely downscaled over the years, with a whole series of initiatives out of the US, to reduce risks. Their revenue, for a large part, comes through capital markets and transaction business, as well as a stable asset management business. A great company, however a very hard stock to necessarily own, because you have all the capital markets uncertainty, pressure on the banks. They are probably the poster boy, whether right or wrong, for public angst. This is something you have to trade a little, rather than being a long-term hold.

The yield is not great – 1.8%. Regional banks have more yield. As a business it has struggled this year, down about 8-9%. You are betting on M&A activity.