Alphabet Inc (GOOG)

It is in a unique situation because a lot of advertising is going online. They have an advantage to Facebook in this area. They are more about software than making products. He prefers this to FB-Q.

It dropped 2 weeks ago, because of the earnings. Some of the investors and analysts took that as a negative. You have to remember that a $45 drop in the stock is pretty small percentage wise. Still one of his favourites. They own “search”, and with Facebook (FB-Q) they own “mobile advertising”, one of the best growth areas out there. They do very smart acquisitions and generate a lot of cash. Still one of the great growth stocks out there. Only trading at about a 20-22 multiple.

A fantastic company that he would buy. The valuation is a little bit high for a tech company, but they have a tremendous balance sheet and cash flow and they are just unleashing the potential of YouTube. GOOG-Q is a very disruptive company. YouTube is the crown jewel now.

(A Top Pick Jan 27/16. Up 16.18%.) The company is doing everything right, and he is happy with it. They have their “other bets” category where they have been spending quite heavily and have been taking some heat. They’ve started to reef that in and get it under control. Has strong year-over-year growth rates in 20% category. Everybody has baked in the governments’ tax repatriation holiday. If they get that, that will be a nice move.

They are reining in expenses, which people are a little bit upset about. Tax repatriation could be a benefit to them. 15% of their cash ($82-$83 billion) is trapped overseas. (Analysts’ price target is $991.78.)

A new wave media company coming out with earnings tonight. He expects $35 a share earnings, up from $29 last year. (Analysts’ target: $971.64).

He likes this and doesn’t see selling his holdings for some time. Trading at about 24X earnings. Growing at a 15-16 clip, a pretty good valuation for a very strong tech name that doesn’t have a lot of competition. They are monetizing areas like the YouTube space, and their ad sales are doing very, very well. This is a name you want to hold long-term.

(A Top Pick Feb 9/16. Up 17.52%.) She still likes this. It actually lagged during the whole post election rally. She likes the secular play on online advertising, which is a growing trend. Of all the digital ads in the US, this company takes about 40%, and she expects this to continue. Trading at about 21X forward earnings, which is reasonable given that she thinks their earnings can grow in the 18%-20% range over the foreseeable future.

For US technology, there are a bunch of cross currents for a lot of them. There is a potential big benefit if the US allows repatriation of foreign cash. Some, including this one, would be big recipients. This one continues to grow very, very nicely, both its core business and its YouTube franchise. Has a bunch of businesses that are not generating a lot of profits yet, which at some point could crystallize. A 25% grower trading just over the market multiple at closer to 20X earnings.

(Top Pick Dec 15/15, Up 7.11%) It has been a steady performer. He does not think it satisfied a lot of investors because their price action does not reflect their results. They are revolutionizing the online experience. 84% of their business is over mobile devices. Management has introduced a lot of discipline into the company. YouTube has taken off. They are making money. It is a bit shy in terms of multiple.

Presently about 35% of advertising budgets are allocated for online, and that is going to increase over time. This is the largest search engine out there, so they are going to garner a certain percentage of any advertising budget. There has been a pullback in the large cap tech stocks, but that has been recovering. The valuation on this is a very reasonable. (Analysts’ price target is $968.94.)

This has had a nice pull back. The balance sheet is growing all the time.

This sold off after the election. In terms of growth rate and valuations, the revenues next year are expected to grow 16%, EPS growth of 19%, and you only have to pay 19X earnings to get that. Consumer staple stocks are trading at 20, 21, 22 times earnings, and the revenue growth is only 2%. (Analysts’ price target is $967.70.)

The FANG stocks have not participated since the Trump rally took off. You are seeing pressure against a declining 20 day moving average. They are not participating in the infrastructure build, industrial revolution, financial rallies. You want to be in other places at this point. We do have a 200-day moving average coming into play at about $760. If it can hold that, it might be something to shoot against, but until we can break the trend of lower highs and lower lows, this could be heading lower. (See Top Picks.)

He tries to gravitate towards companies that have very good defensible businesses with dominant positions. This is definitely one of those, if you think of how much of the mobile ad market they dominate. Also, their participation in the oligopoly of the Cloud. Very rarely can you get exposure to a company like this, at a multiple that is close to the market multiple. They are demonstrating relatively resilient growth. Mobile ad sales growth is going to slow, which should be offset by an increase in Cloud spending which should go up quite significantly for the next 5 years. (Analysts’ price target is $967.70.)