Tim ReganGFL Environmental Inc.GFL.TOTOP PICKOct 23, 2026

He's very bullish on waste collection. Not his only holding. Pricing is up ~6%, but volumes are flat. So topline growth is 6%. Margins have expanded to near 30%. Leverage decent, could be lower. Two competing offers for it, takeover premium's not quite reflected in the stock.

If you own, hold on till there's a resolution. If looking to add on merits of its organic business, he sees high teens to low 20s in total return from here.

It broke out of a downtrend. If it breaks $60, it looks very good technically.

The debt levels scare him, especially in a cyclical, commodity-oriented business without a lot of pricing power. Management's done a great job. SES acquisition probably a smart move.

His clients own WCN instead.

Analysts are more optimistic than the markets are, so it's a bit wait-and-see. GFL has dependable, recurring revenue. Last quarter was very strong, organic growth revenue accelerated. Juicy angle is it's been approached to go private. 3/10 on fundamentals.

Likes GFL as a longer-term hold. If you hold for the next 12-24 months, you should be rewarded.

Very new stock for his team, bought last week. Both valuation and FCF growth higher than WCN (which is facing negative headlines right now). Defensive. Fourth largest in NA. Headline this month about private equity looking to take it private is not itself a reason to own (but it's in the back of his mind). Yield is 0.17%.

Loves the sector, a more defensive industrial space (we need garbage disposal whether the economy is up or down). Stock came down as the market hated SES purchase. Take-private rumours (not the first time). A lot of ifs. She's not interested.

She prefers WCN. Safer industries, better management. 

Riskier and lower-quality in the space. Broadly speaking, waste is a need and not a want. Non-discretionary, non-cyclical. SES is a good business, but more cyclical -- regional, plus narrow focus on oilfields. Safer bet is to sell your shares before the deal closes.

He prefers, and owns, WM. Higher credit rating, more conservatively run, better mix of businesses.

Likes the business for being stable and reliable. We all need garbage pick-up. GFL is good at buying companies and growing. No issues with it. Good overall.

Making an acquisition by issuing shares often ends up being dilutive over time. He prefers a successful company to return excess capital to shareholders by decreasing the share count.

To be fair, stock's done really well. Great business. Diversified and grown. Bit more leverage than he likes. Trying to corner the market in some areas.

If it's a small position in a registered account, don't worry about it. If you have a small capital loss in a taxable account, good time to move on and wait for issues to resolve.

It picks up garbage, municipal and business. Has a good long term business model with good cash flow. Its core business is doing well and it recently bought Secure which fits well, is accretive, and generates lots of cash. They own 70% of the market and have great management. There is lots of opportunity to consolidate the market and he is looking for a double.

Likes the recent deal, while US brokerages hated it. SES is a pretty good company, and didn't pay a lot for it. 

Type of business he'd like to own at the right price. He'd like to see a higher dividend yield. Pretty well run. Drop in the stock argues for potential upside.

Waste services is defensive and so attractive, but valuations have jumped. For this acquisition with SES, GFL issued shares and paid a full valuation, which is why shares sold off. But his problem has always been GFL's weak balance sheet. But the deal is strategic.

 Chart says it's very oversold. Is attractive around US$30-35. It will likely fall more. 

Whole sector's underwater. This company is facing actual shootups and fires. Concerns over debt, especially if interest rates rise (he doesn't think they will). Will move beyond the debt. Turnaround at some point.

He owns WCN instead.