Dollarama Inc. (DOL.TO)

It was overvalued in the 80s and 90s. The challenge is that most of their purchases are in US dollars and their hedges are coming off. If the stock broke $70 he would look at it seriously because it is well managed and they will continue to maintain healthy margins. You have to be careful when you are paying a high multiple.

If you buy well you have less pain in any point during the investment. This is fantastic management. There have been worries as to whether US companies would come into Canada and push them out. He does not think it is all that cheap and it could get cheaper. Wait and see.

A bit too expensive. Finally missed their numbers, so it now has a lower valuation which seems to be permanent. You might have to be really patient, but wait for another little miss and buy it the next morning. Good company with still lots of growth and lots of new stores.

An outstanding company. It has corrected, and he was buying some today. Attractive in the $75 range. The stock is expensive, but has a very high ROE. Thinks management can grow the stores from 1100 stores to 1500 over the next 2-3 years. Management is very sharp and on top of the details of their company.

A good business that he likes. The dividend is too low for him and the increases have not been enough. He would buy it on the second wave up.

One of his largest holdings in 2 of his funds. This has always been a stock with good valuation, and they continually beat on earnings. Pristine balance sheet. Fantastic ROE at 55%. Quite a defensive, stable stock.

It will do better with a stabilized Canadian dollar. It has been tough for it to keep its margins with a strong American dollar. It will go in sync with the Canadian dollar.

It is a simple business of selling things for a dollar or three. It is an expensive multiple for a retailer. It is still growing, but people are questioning whether it is slowing in growth. He would still avoid it even at these prices.

Both medium and long term it is a buy. It did well until early December when they announced their earnings. They were very cautious about guidance into the next quarter and next year. Most of their products are imported and the low CAD$ is causing their cost of goods sold to creep up. They have lots of room for store growth. Dollar stores in the US don’t hold a candle to DOL-T. It is at 22 times earnings.

It is down more than 20% from its peak last year. It broke the trend line. Because it had a high multiple it can correct more than others. He would not step in just yet.

Has been in a great space because it is low cost. The Cdn$ going the way it is, makes it difficult as their margins are getting squeezed. If you have to or want to be in the retail space, this is a pretty good opportunity because it is in a good area. He feels he has a better one. (See Top Picks.)

They continue to have overall good numbers. Earnings estimates have come down. It is too expensive for him. He can buy something more inexpensive. He prefers ATD.B-T. The higher US dollar is hurting DOL-T.

Short? Shorting stocks is really tough. He always looks at 3 things before shorting. 1) General market trend, 2) sentiment towards the stock and 3) is there a catalyst you are betting on. Trading at 28X earnings. If you Short, put stop losses in. He would not Short this one.

Not cheap, which is why it has paused and declined by about 10%. Numbers reported were better than expected. Management indicated the outlook was not quite as rosy because of currency, and they were going to be a little more cautious on their outlook. Trading at 25X 2016 earnings estimates, which are expected to grow at 11%, so you have growth rate of 2.3X. ROE is huge at 65%, but the forecast for 2017 is 15% against a 22% PE.

He does not know the seasonality. The longer term trend was on the upside, but then it broke below a key support level in a head and shoulders pattern. This is not good news. There is support around $73. It is below its 20 day moving average. You don’t want to be in this stock. Take some money off the table.