Walt Disney Co. (DIS)

Definitely cheaper, but too many unknowns. Need clarity on ESPN growth. Cable business will slowly die off. Disney+ is stalling out. Marvel franchise is stale. Still more downside. If strategic moves alleviated concerns, he'd take a hard look.

The chart since DIS shows that this is a couple dollars from a technical buy. There's a W bottom, so if this gets to $89 it's a buy.

Remember, it's down only 1.5% for the year. It's trading at 15x the entire theme park as if nothing else there is worth anything. This is very oversold and feels like a bottom. There is decent earnings growth in 2024-5.

He made a mistake buying this. He bought into Bob Iger returning as CEO. Iger's plan will need more time, so he's holding on. In this sector, he prefers Netflix, Google and AT&T much more.

They need to quiet the noise. The narrative is all over the place, which is why they're taking out Hulu. They need to quiet the noise on ESPN. The theme park capex is meant to quiet the noise.

Tough times for company. Believes company at the lowest point now. Good for long term investors. Expecting a recovery. 

Hit hard by its transition from traditional to new-age media. Unique because it has so many different assets. Massive pressure to improve profitability and unlock hidden value. Conservatively, trades at 30-40% discount to sum of the parts. Earnings projections for 3-5 years look very attractive. Lots of upside. No dividend.

The stock price is being affected by its falling Disney Plus subscriber numbers. However the new (old) CEO is looking to improve profitability and expects great profits by 2024. They are looking to spend less on content and have narrowed their losses by hundreds of millions of dollars. It has long term unmatched global brand name assets such as the parks and resorts component, ESPN, etc. No other company can match this. He is being patient but will sell if their stop-loss point is reached.

Has owned shares in the past, but not right now.
Company less attractive than in the past.
Expensive business costs with inability to generate growing cash flow.
Re-investment into theme park business will be beneficial.
Concerned about long term prospects for company.
Current share price too high to justify investment. 

Everything that could go wrong has gone wrong, including the executive suite. Expectations of the cruise lines and theme parks rebounding post-pandemic are overshadowed by the streaming and broadcast businesses, a competitive space that changes rapidly. He's in wait and see mode.

The theme parks are doing great, especially in China, but nobody is talking about them. He expects them to be more resilient than the rest of travel and leisure. Does Netflix have a theme park? Disney can afford and has the cash to pay Comcast to buy the rest of Hulu, unlike some investors, and in fact it's one reason he owns Disney. He just added more shares recently. Doesn't believe they will sell ABC; they aren't as desperate as the bears say. Disney is about to play offence.

Disney had no choice, because with a deal Disney's revenues would have been hit hit by 2-3% or 6-10% in EBITDA. And they have to bid for NBA and it have made it harder for DIS to restore their dividend. That said, she doesn't know the terms of the deal.

He expects the Disney-Hulu deal to wrap by the end of this year. Who cares about the cost of this Charter deal? The industry is leaving linear TV and heading firmly into streaming. Disney's CEO is no dummy; he knows where the industry is going.

Compelling buy at these levels. Unique properties. ESPN remains a free cashflow generator. Parks are booming, hurt a bit by writers' strike. NAV is double current share price. Battling political issues in Florida. Gaining market share in streaming, and CEO is focused on making it profitable.

He sold. Couldn't see the catalysts to drive it forward in the short term. Best content. Disney+ is very expensive. A lot of pent-up Covid demand has been satisfied. Be cautious. See his Top Picks for ideas, instead of waiting around on a name like DIS.